Experts say Russian invasion would be bloody
If it happens, a Russian invasion of Ukraine would almost certainly be a bloody affair with many casualties and widespread destruction, experts say.
The United States signalled Friday that a Russian invasion of Ukraine could be imminent, ratcheting up tensions that have loomed for months.
How such a for-now-theoretical scenario would play depends on several factors, says Stephen Saideman, the Paterson Chair in International Affairs at Carleton University, though some things are clear.
“It can either be a very short, bloody conflict or it could be a long, bloody conflict,” he said. “But it’ll be very, very destructive.”
The conflict could depend on how well the Ukrainian resistance holds up; as well as how far Russia wants to push into Ukraine and how much urban combat there is, Saideman predicted.
Centrally, there is the question of what sort of support Ukraine would receive from North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) members, outside of assistance through arms and funding. The U.S. Pentagon decided Friday to send another 3,000 troops to Poland as concerns over an invasion ramp up. They’ll join 1,700 troops already there with a focus on deterrence, not combat in Ukraine.
On paper, Russia’s military, one of the largest in the world, dwarfs that of Ukraine.
Russia has 900,000 active military troops, including the navy and air force. The country has about 2,000,000 reservists as well, according to the International Institute for Strategic Studies, a British research institute. Russia had amassed more than 100,000 troops at Ukraine’s border.
Since 2014, when Russia occupied the Crimea region, Ukraine has made significant improvements to its defences and boosted spending, according to a U.S. Congressional Research Service paper from late January.
In 2014, Ukraine had 6,000 combat-ready soldiers. By 2022, that number had ballooned to about 145,000 army troops. Ukraine has 209,000 active military personnel, including the navy and air force, and 900,000 in reserve, according to the 2021 Military Balance — an annually released compilation of the military capabilities in countries across the world. It’s put out by International Institute for Strategic Studies.
Ukraine also had a swath of what the Congressional Research Service labels “volunteer battalions” that were formed in 2014 as light infantry groups to fight Russia. Concerns had been raised about how much control the government had over these units “since oligarchs, political parties and some right-wing extremist groups created or funded most battalions,” the U.S. research said.
Ukraine brought these units under the command of the National Guard within the Interior Ministry in 2014. The country also has “Territorial Defense Forces” — locally organized units of about 25 brigades and 150 battalions. The country aims to recruit 130,000 reservists to serve alongside a core of 10,000 full-time soldiers, the U.S. Congressional Research Service paper said.
The last comparable invasion of this size would have been the U.S. invasion of Iraq in 2003, which saw Iraqi resistance toppled fairly easily, said Saideman. However, the Russians are “tremendously unpopular” in Ukraine, he said, and there would likely be fierce resistance to any invasion.
For Russia’s part, while it has lots of artillery and would have command of the air, “It’s not just going to be a walk in the park for them.”
“There’ll be body bags going back to Russia — that’s something that Putin has to face: How tolerant are the Russian people of significant casualties?”
Eric Ouellet, a professor in the department of defence studies at the Canadian Forces College, said the force that Russia has amassed at Ukraine’s border is structured for being “very mobile” and designed to “blitz.”
That could pose a challenge for Russia. If the goal were to get to Kyiv, the capital city, and other urban areas, they could be bogged down by street-to-street fighting and ambushes, said Ouellet.
“There’s a risk that it degenerates into that kind of conflict, with the West supporting behind closed doors with weapons and equipment,” he said. “That’s a scenario that Russia does not want, for sure.”
Ukraine’s military is “very Soviet” and quite centralized, which makes it not very flexible, said Ouellet, and Russia could outmanoeuvre its military easily. Russia would avoid a long, protracted battle at all costs, he said. If it were to launch a fullscale attack, the goal would be to quickly put in a pro-Russian government and then “get the hell out of there.”
‘‘ There’ll be body bags going back to Russia — that’s something that Putin has to face: How tolerant are the Russian people of significant casualties?
PROF. STEPHEN SAIDEMAN
INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS, CARLETON UNIVERSITY