PCs on track to form another majority, polling shows

The Progressive Conservatives appear to be maintaining an unassailable lead in the last full week of campaigning before Ontario’s provincial election on June 2.

According to the Signal, a poll aggregator created for the Star by Vox Pop Labs, the PCs are on track to form another majority government. If the election had been held on Monday, The Signal projected the Progressive Conservatives would have won more than twice as many seats as the NDP and more than three times as many as the Liberals.

The latest projection from the Signal has the PCs at 36.1 per cent of the popular vote, with the Liberals at 26.1 per cent, NDP at 24.9 per cent and Greens at 5.9 per cent.

Vox Pop CEO Clifton van der Linden said PC support has remained constant. The only flux in projections, he said, is in the race for second place.

“Where we have seen movement over the last few days has been in the substantial narrowing of the gap between the Liberals and NDP, with the latter regaining traction after a slump in support at the outset of the campaign,” van der Linden said.

“NDP gains appear to be coming largely at the expense of Liberal vote share. If this trend holds we could see the NDP remain as the Official Opposition in Ontario come June 2.”

According to the Signal’s model, that would translate into the PCs winning 74 seats, with the NDP at 30, Liberals at 19 and Green Party at one. Last week’s results predicted 74 seats for the PCs, 20 for the Liberals and 29 for the NDP, with one seat for the Green Party. There are 124 seats in the Ontario Legislature.

The PCs are, however, currently projected to lose two seats, having won 76 in 2018. The Signal anticipates the NDP will lose 10 seats and the Liberals will gain 12. The Green Party is forecast to remain at one seat.

The Green Party has polled neckand-neck with the Signal’s “Other Parties” category, which is the combination of vote intentions for political parties other than the PCs, Liberals, NDP and Greens. This includes two new right-wing parties, the New Blue Party and Ontario Party.

The Signal predicts other parties could potentially win up to three seats, but currently has them projected to win none. Other parties are forecast to take 7.1 per cent of the popular vote, ahead of the Green Party’s 5.9 per cent.

The Signal functions by collecting election polling information from across Canada, controlling for biases in it, and generating a “poll of polls.” It was last used by the Star in September’s federal election, where its prediction was closer to the final results than any other polling aggregator in Canada.