Ten races projected to be tight contests

With the Ontario election just over a week away, the parties are gearing up for a final push.

When they’re deciding which ridings to pour resources into, they might want to focus on a handful that the Signal — a poll aggregator created for the Star by Vox Pop Labs — has pegged as toss-ups.

The Signal’s seat projection is based on current provincewide polling, combined with results in the 2018 election. (The provincewide vote share projection is based on current polling, and with results from several previous elections.)

While defending the projections, Vox Pop CEO Clifton van der Linden acknowledged that seat projections — and the individual riding projections they’re based on — aren’t an exact science.

Here are 10 seats the Signal has pegged as toss-ups. (The first party listed after the riding name is projected to have a slight edge.)

Beaches—East York (LiberalNDP) This one is listed as a toss-up between the NDP’s Kate Dupuis, and Liberal Mary-Margaret McMahon. In 2018, it went to the NDP’s Rima Berns-McGown, who took 48.21 per cent of the vote, with then-Liberal incumbent Arthur Potts in second with 27.01.

Brampton North (PC-Liberal) PC candidate Graham McGregor is in a fight to pry this seat out of the hands of the NDP. This time, Sandeep Singh is running for the NDP. In 2018, the NDP’s Kevin Yarde edged out PC candidate 37.55 per cent to 36.29. The Liberals’ Harinder Malhi was third, with 21.22.

Humber River—Black Creek (Liberal-NDP) NDP incumbent Tom Rakocevic is trying to hold off a stiff challenge from Paul Nguyen of the PCs. Last time around, Rakocevic edged then-PC candidate Cyma Musarat 37.41 per cent to 30.29. Deanna Sgro of the Liberals was a strong third, with 27.94.

Mississauga-Lakeshore (LiberalPC) PC incumbent Randy Cuzzetto is projected to be in a tough battle with Liberal candidate Elizabeth Mendes. Cuzzetto beat former incumbent, Liberal finance minister Charles Sousa, in 2018 with 42.33 per cent to Sousa’s 35.03.

Oakville (Liberal-PC) PC incumbent Stephen Crawford is expected to be in a dogfight with Liberal Alison Gohel. While the Liberal vote cratered across Ontario in 2018, they weren’t too far back here, with then-incumbent Kevin Flynn in second place with 35.74 per cent of the vote, to Crawford’s 43.67.

Oshawa (NDP-PC) NDP incumbent Jennifer French is running against PC candidate Alex Down in a riding where she narrowly beat the Tory candidate in 2018. Last time around, French edged the PCs’ Bob Chapman, winning 44.88 per cent of the vote to Chapman’s 41.73.

Ottawa Centre (Liberal-NDP) NDP incumbent Joel Harden is projected to be in tough against Liberal candidate Katie Gibbs in a riding held for many years by former Liberal cabinet minister Yasir Naqvi (who now represents the riding in the House of Commons).

Scarborough Centre (PC-Liberal) School trustee and PC candidate David Smith faces the Liberals’ Mazhar Shafiq in a riding won by Christina Mitas for the PCs last time. Mitas announced earlier this year she wouldn’t be running again.

Spadina—Fort York (NDP-Liberal) NDP incumbent Chris Glover cruised to victory in 2018, winning 49.62 per cent of the votes to the Liberals’ Han Dong with 23.67. Glover, however, is projected to be in a much closer fight this time against Liberal Chi Nguyen.

St. Catharines (NDP-PC) NDP incumbent Jennie Stevens edged Sandie Bellows of the PCs in 2018, in a race that was marked by the collapse of the Liberal vote, which saw long-time incumbent Jim Bradley swept out of office. This time around, The Signal is forecasting a tight race between Stevens and PC candidate Sal Sorrento.