It’s time to pull the plug
With race for wild-card spots getting tighter, Jays can’t afford to give Kikuchi another start
The Blue Jays had 36 million reasons to keep throwing Yusei Kikuchi out there every five days regardless of the results. After four months of erratic command and non-competitive starts, patience is running out and the 31-year-old’s bloated contract may no longer be enough to keep his job.
When the Jays signed Kikuchi to a three-year deal earlier this year, they believed he was the missing piece in what had the potential to become the best starting rotation in the American League. Where others saw red flags in a 4.97 career ERA, the Jays saw upside in his upper-90s arm.
The move was significant enough that the organization arranged an introductory news conference at spring training. A long table was placed under the covered infield at the Jays’ complex as Kikuchi was joined by Jays general manager Ross Atkins on a broadcast carried live by Rogers-owned Sportsnet. Agent Scott Boras checked in virtually from a nearby laptop.
It was the type of scene usually reserved for star players, the impact pieces who get the red-carpet treatment as part of a fancy production. It’s not for role guys who typically meet the media for the first time in a small scrum with their backs against a concrete wall.
At the time, the news conference style seemed a bit much for a guy who had been signed to become the Jays’ fifth starter. But this wasn’t just any complementary piece, he was someone the Jays believed in enough to be handed a lucrative multi-year deal. Kikuchi was supposed to be a back-end starter in name only, he was signed to produce like a mid-rotation arm.
Or at least that’s what the Jays hoped.
“There are a couple things that are exceptionally important to us,” Atkins said then. “It’s dependability, reliability, durability, that being one thing in a starting pitcher. The other one being athleticism. We feel, with those things combined, that you can continue to improve.”
Atkins was insinuating that Kikuchi possessed each of those attributes. Less than a year into his Jays career, it has become apparent that he does not. There’s nothing reliable about being unable to complete five innings in more than half his starts. With an ugly 5.25 ERA, one could argue the whole durability thing has done more harm than good.
The Jays gave Kikuchi a lot of leeway throughout much of the year for a couple reasons. The first is the contract that pays him $16 million (U.S.) this season and a combined $20 million over the next two. With a long-term commitment on the books, this wasn’t a situation the club was going to easily walk away from.
Beyond cash, the Jays also weren’t motivated to make an early move because they didn’t have any viable alternatives. After Ross Stripling was pressed into duty as Hyun-Jin Ryu’s replacement, the club had a void in big-league ready backups.
The landscape has since changed, largely because of the schedule. The Jays might have been able to wait this out when they had a comfortable lead in the wild-card standings and plenty of season left to play. With 47 games remaining, and seven teams still in the mix for three wild-card spots, it’s a comfort they can no longer afford, and it’s start- ing to sound like they realize it, too.
“I think the best word to describe where we are in the season is urgent,” Jays manager John Schneider said when asked what would factor into whether Kikuchi gets another start. “Every game is important, there is a big mix of teams vying for playoff spots, which I think is fun and exciting and competitive. We factor in everything really. We factor in performance, we factor in matchups, and we make the best decision for the team.”
With Stripling set to return for Wednesday’s series finale against the Orioles and Mitch White having made two competent starts since being acquired earlier this month, it should be obvious to everyone by now that it’s time to pull the plug on Kikuchi. The experiment has been a failure and, instead of determining when his next start will be, the Jays should be focused on where he can cause the least amount of damage.
It seems unlikely the Jays’ front office would pay Kikuchi upwards of $25 million to just go away. Command issues and far too many home runs mean he can’t be trusted in middle relief, especially with MLB’s three-batter minimum rule. The only thing left is burying him in long relief.
“Maybe?” Schneider said in less than convincing fashion after being asked if there was a role for Kikuchi beyond starting. “He’s a really good pitcher and he has really good stuff. When he’s on, he strikes a lot of guys out. I think at this point in the season, anything is on the table, and just trying to find the best spot for him and everyone to help us win.”
The Jays’ patience to this point with Kikuchi has been frustrating, yet understandable. They bought stock at a grossly inflated price only to see its value plummet over the ensuing months.
For awhile, this club had enough capital that it could absorb the losses in hopes of future gains. With barely any separation in the standings and a crucial series looming against the Yankees, that luxury no longer exists.
The Jays are 6-14 with Kikuchi as their starter and 55-39 with everyone else. That alone should be enough to justify a changing of the guard for a team that missed out on a tiebreaker by one game last year and could face a similar situation again in 2022.
The rotation needs someone reliable. Since it’s become clear Kikuchi isn’t going to be that guy down the stretch, they might as well try White. He can’t do much worse.