Quebec needs the immigrants it fears
I suppose Quebec has the right to shoot itself in the foot. Perhaps its mangled toes are its business alone, and any criticism of its self-destructive tendencies over immigration and culture amounts to just more Anglo “Quebec bashing” (or as it’s known in French, “le Quebec bashing”).
Because what Quebec voters did this week — at least as translated through the distorted lens of the first-past-the-post voting system — does amount to self-harm. They gave an overwhelming majority to a party, François Legault’s Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ), that openly played on fears about immigration and vows to restrict the number of newcomers to the province.
Much has been made of Legault’s statement that allowing more than 50,000 immigrants a year to Quebec would be “suicidal” for its French-speaking identity. But even worse was his immigration minister’s unfounded claim that “80 per cent of immigrants go to Montreal, don’t work, don’t speak French or don’t adhere to the values of Quebec society.”
The damage to immigrant communities from this kind of abusive language is obvious. But damage will be inflicted on the whole of Quebec society as well, the francophone majority included, in both the short and long term.
In the short term, cutting back on the number of permanent residents allowed to settle in the province will hurt prospects for economic growth. In fact, that’s already happening.
Businesses in Quebec (as in other provinces) are complaining that they can’t find workers. The Montreal Gazette recently ran a lengthy story on this, quoting executives of small- and medium-sized companies lamenting that they’re having to refuse contracts because they don’t have enough people to do the work.
Labour shortages are a problem right across the country, but they’re especially acute in Quebec. “If you’re an employer nowadays, it’s like fishing in an empty lake,” the head of the province’s main employers’ association was quoted as saying.
Ironically, Legault’s government has had to respond to this shortage by admitting more temporary foreign workers than ever — even as it promises to cut back immigration targets for the province. It’s had to recognize economic reality, despite its rhetoric.
You can call that pragmatic or you can call it hypocritical; either way, it underlines the fact that the CAQ’s reluctance to accept newcomers because of overblown fears about Quebec’s linguistic/cultural identity isn’t sustainable. Unless, of course, you’re prepared to accept that Quebec should resign itself to being a low-growth backwater. In fact, some nationalist politicians embrace that very idea in the name of cultural identity.
That certainly wasn’t the CAQ’s vision when Legault was first elected. As a successful businessman, he promised to boost economic growth and wean Quebec off dependence on subsidies (a.k.a. equalization payments) from the rest of Canada. Campaigning back in 2017, he promised: “A CAQ government will have ambition, will aim high for Quebec.”
Which brings us to the longerterm threat to Quebec posed by a low-immigration, low-growth path for the province — aiming low rather than high, in other words.
Quebec’s share of the country’s population has been declining, gradually but steadily, for decades. Restricting immigration while the rest of Canada accepts record numbers of newcomers (431,000 is Ottawa’s target this year) will accelerate that trend. In fact, the province’s share of Canada’s population is projected to dip below 20 per cent by 2043.
Quebec politicians can see what that means: less clout for the province in the federation. Some are pushing for Quebec’s share of seats in Parliament to be guaranteed at its current level (about 23 per cent) no matter how low its population falls.
That might happen, given the eagerness of both major parties to curry favour with Quebec voters. But it would be possible only by further under-representing the fastest-growing provinces, Ontario, Alberta and B.C. If the seat guarantee doesn’t happen, Quebec’s influence in Canada, already on the decline, will keep on shrinking.
So there you have the price of discouraging immigration while the rest of Canada opens its doors: slower growth now, and the prospect of marginalization down the road.
How many busted toes does that make?