Look for the Jays to jump out early

GAME 1 PICKS

A six-month season has come and gone, and now a mere best-of-three AL wild-card series will determine the fate of the Blue Jays and Mariners.

The pre-game narrative

Toronto hosts Seattle on Friday to open the series at Rogers Centre, where the Blue Jays took two of three games from the Mariners earlier this season. Both teams enter as winners in seven of their past 10 games.

Game 1 pick

Blue Jays to lead after five innings (+102)

Home-field advantage isn’t completely quantifiable, but it could mean something in this series, given that it mattered in the regularseason series with the host team winning six of seven games. Toronto opens the series with the AL’s hottest pitcher, Alek Manoah, who posted an 0.88 ERA over six September starts that resulted in five Blue Jays wins. The Mariners’ numbers against him this year: a .143 batting average, a .286 slugging percentage, and an average exit velocity of 83.1 mile per hour.

Key stat

Toronto is 4-1-1 at the five-inning mark in Manoah’s past six starts.

Quick picks

Blue Jays -1.5 (+155) Toronto covered this number in both home wins against Seattle this season, as well as five of its past six games overall. The Jays have also covered the run line in five of Manoah’s six outings in September. Though Seattle starter Luis Castillo (8-6, 2.99 ERA) has had a stellar year, his recent numbers on the road are unflattering. Since joining the Mariners at the deadline, Castillo has allowed 18 earned runs over 33.2 innings (4.81 ERA) away from TMobile Park.

Blue Jays over 3.5 runs (-117) Castillo’s mediocrity on the road helps us feel encouraged on this bet, but let’s also not forget how talented Toronto’s offence was this year. The Blue Jays ranked second in the majors in wRC+ or weighted runs created plus (118) and second in the AL in runs per game (4.78).