Wildrose may bloom as ex-leader returns
The good news for Alberta’s United Conservative Party: Jason Kenney is out.
The bad news: Danielle Smith is in.
It’s also not exactly great news for national unity.
Smith, once the most reviled politician in Alberta, has seized control of the province’s governing party and will be sworn in as premier to replace Kenney on Tuesday.
She won the UCP leadership race by appealing to the baser instincts of frustrated Albertans by promising, in so many words, to tear down the house.
“No longer will Alberta ask permission from Ottawa to be prosperous and free,” declared Smith in her victory speech. “We will not have our voices silenced or censored.”
In Smith’s vision of the future, Alberta will, through a soon-to-be introduced Sovereignty Act, give itself the power to ignore federal laws deemed un-Albertan, bypass inconvenient court decisions, and build interprovincial energy pipelines without federal approval.
It is a dream untethered to reality, but gave wings to a campaign that seemed like a long shot just a few months ago.
In recent years, Smith had declared herself “unelectable.” She was, after all, the Wildrose Party leader who had led a disastrous floor crossing of nine MLAs to the governing Progressive Conservatives in 2014. Not only did Smith seemingly destroy her own political career, the floor crossing so angered the general public that the PCs lost the 2015 election to the NDP.
But after years of burnishing her battered image as host to a radio phone-in program promoting conservative ideas, including rightwing conspiracy theories and quack cures for COVID, Smith emerged from the political wilderness a refurbished champion of “freedom.”
It is, to say the least, a remarkable comeback story.
Her supporters, all 42,423 of them who chose her as leader, are understandably ecstatic. The 36,480 who supported runner-up Travis Toews are looking for the name of the bus that just ran them over.
Call it the anti-establishment express. Or the angry truckers’ revenge. Or, perhaps just call it what it is: the Wildrose Party.
For that is arguably what happened Thursday night in Alberta. Smith, after steering the Wildrose to defeat in the 2012 general election and leading the fatal floor crossing of 2014, has not only resurrected herself, but has brought back from the dead the soul of the Wildrose.
Kenney, who thought he had united the remnants of the Wildrose and PC parties in 2017 to form the UCP, has been shoved aside not by a new leader of a new movement, but by the old leader of a discredited movement.
What should give UCP supporters pause is that the Wildrose was too radical, too socially conservative, and too out of touch with mainstream Albertans.
Also cause for alarm, Smith is deeply unpopular with many Albertans. A recent Léger poll indicated 54 per cent of respondents said Smith becoming premier would be “bad” or “terrible” for the province. Only 32 per cent thought it would be “good” or “great.”
Realizing she is a polarizing character, her victory speech had the occasional soft touch: “Yes, we are entrepreneurs and business people and fiscally prudent. But we also have heart and compassion that matches the size of our mountains.”
Pundits and observers were listening closely, looking for any indication she will begin to pivot in a meaningful way from a campaign of anger and grievance to one more palatable to a wider segment of Albertans. It would seem not. The anger and grievance were front and centre. She is threatening to punish Alberta Health Services for infringing on people’s freedoms during the pandemic — and if AHS management gives her trouble, “we will find those that can take their place.”
She is focused on going to war with “an increasingly hostile Ottawa regime that seeks to control every aspect of our lives.”
And she’s sticking with her cornerstone policy: “It is safe to say that many in the Notley-SinghTrudeau alliance will claim that my plan to stand up to Ottawa with the Sovereignty Act is somehow meant to move Alberta towards leaving our beloved Canada. This is a lie.”
But much of what Smith promoted during the five-month-long leadership race sure looked, walked and quacked like separation. Perhaps she will, in an attempt to appeal to moderate Albertans, water down the Sovereignty Act so that it’s more workable and less wackadoodle.
Smith will be sworn in as premier on Tuesday and then will need to win a seat in a byelection. There is a vacancy in Calgary-Elbow, but Smith says she’d be more comfortable running in a rural riding and suggested there are several spots about to become open up. She would indeed be more comfortable in a rural riding because rural Albertans were the backbone of her campaign. And she could very well lose in a riding as relatively progressive as Calgary-Elbow.
That should give UCP members pause, too. Calgary will be the battleground in next year’s provincial election and Smith is afraid of contesting a byelection there.
Besides trying to woo Alberta voters, Smith will first have to unite what is a fractured UCP.
Several of the other candidates in the race, including Brian Jean, another former Wildrose leader, have said they’d be happy to serve under Smith.
Second-place finisher Toews, on the other hand, pointedly refused to say throughout the campaign if he would stay on under a Premier Smith. Speaking after a caucus meeting Friday morning in Calgary, Toews said he is still considering his political future. Perhaps he’s pondering whether he wants to stick with a UCP that seems ready to morph into the old Wildrose.
A recent Léger poll indicated 54 per cent of respondents said Danielle Smith becoming premier would be ‘bad’ or ‘terrible’ for Alberta