Time to leave history in the past
If you dwell on the pathetic franchise history for more than a moment, it’ll overwhelm you.
So if you’re with the Maple Leafs, the prescription in the lead-up to Saturday’s Game 6 in Tampa is simple enough. Between now and puck drop, you use every Jedi mind trick known to Toronto’s army of sports psychologists to distract you from the franchise’s 0-for-10 record in potential series clinchers in the Shanaplan era.
Don’t concern yourself with the embarrassing playoff-series losing streak that goes back to 2004. Blame James Reimer for a good chunk of that.
Never, ever bother pondering the momentous question of why the most resource-rich franchise in the sport has authored the longest Stanley Cup drought in NHL history. Lay that on the ghost of Harold Ballard and those money grubbers from the teachers’ pension plan.
Definitely forget the very real possibility that, in the wake of Thursday’s 4-2 loss, the Lightning smell blood. Pay no heed to the even scarier notion that Lightning goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy, oddly mortal in Games 1 through 4, has hit the reset button and is back to being a world beater.
In lieu of real-world touchstones, it’s best to heed the sage advice of a fictional coaching great: the esteemed soccer sage, Ted Lasso. Do as Lasso once urged a slumping player: Be a goldfish.
The goldfish, the coach in the hit Apple TV show insists, is the happiest animal on the planet for a good reason: It has a 10-second memory. Which, in a way, is the same thing Lightning coach Jon Cooper has been saying to his double Cup-winning team for years.
“Every series is one game,” Cooper said this week. “That’s what you’re coaching. I understand it’s a seven-game series, but you’re trying to win a game.”
If a 10-second memory seems humanly impossible, a 12-day recall ought to cover it.
Toronto, after all, still leads its series with the Lightning 3-2. It’s still a win away from a long-awaited celebration.
But recent results suggest the percentages favour the Leafs in Saturday’s Game 6.
As daunting as it might be to venture into the home of the vaunted Lightning, consider this: Since the playoffs began last week, road teams owned a win-loss record of 24-16 heading into Friday. That’s tied for the most road wins through 40 games in any NHL post-season. Which makes you wonder why teams spend 82 games vying for the alleged benefits of home ice.
The road dominance has been even more pronounced in TorontoTampa Bay. The Lightning’s win at Scotiabank Arena on Thursday brought the visitors’ record in the series to 4-1.
“It’s the year of the road team,” Cooper said.
Everyone’s got a theory for what’s going on. It’s certainly not a great comment on the power of the one small advantage granted to home teams, the resident coach’s option for the last change. For all the talkradio air that goes into the parsing line matchups, hockey isn’t chess.
These days every NHL rink is largely a cookie-cutter copy of every other rink.
Road life, private charters and five star hotels, is hardly roughing it. And some home crowds, like close family, can be angsty truth tellers to the detriment of the home team’s mental health.
Just ask the Leafs when they were booed off the ice at the conclusion of the opening two periods of their Game 1 loss.
“There can be times, too, where the home crowd can be a bit of a disadvantage for you,” Cooper said Thursday. “At times, the way the crowd feels — and I’ve felt this, had some experience in the playoffs here the last little while — you can feel it work for you and you can feel it work against you … At times maybe that can get in players’ heads. I feel like this is a bit more of an aberration than normal, the road teams winning the way they are.”
Perhaps freed from the not-always-so-friendly confines of the centre of the hockey universe, where the fan base’s collective memory runs more elephant-sized than goldfish scant, the Leafs won Games 3 and 4 in Tampa. Which, frankly, isn’t completely surprising. In the Shanaplan era, the Leafs have a better playoff winning percentage on the road (.476) than they do at home (.391).
The Lightning have been slightly better on the road than at home since they began their run to three straight Cup finals in 2020, which means the prospect of a home-ice Game 7 in Toronto won’t scare them.
Saturday, clearly, is Toronto’s best chance of winning the series. History tells us as much. Four of the six times the Leafs have been eliminated from the playoffs in the Matthews-Marner era, the death blow has been incurred on home ice. The Leafs lost Game 7 at home to the Lightning last year. They lost Game 7 at home to Montreal the year before that. They lost a decisive Game 5 at home the year before that against Columbus, albeit in a bubble. When they had a chance to close out the Bruins in 2019, they lost a potential series-clinching Game 6 at home. And, yes, they also lost the ensuing Game 7 on the road. They’re better on the road, not unbeatable.
Even Toronto’s hot-button defence pairing of the moment, the struggling Justin Holl and Mark Giordano, figures to play better in Florida.
There’s been speculation Leafs coach Sheldon Keefe, who was noncommittal on lineup changes Friday, will consider inserting Timothy Liljegren into the lineup, either as a direct replacement for Holl or as a seventh defenceman while paring the forward ranks from 12 to 11. (The latter move, if you’re betting, would likely see the return of Michael Bunting while Zach AstonReese and Sam Lafferty are scratched).
You’ll understand the urge for more options on the back end. In three playoff home games, the Leafs have been outscored 10-0 with Holl on the ice, including an ugly 3-0 in Thursday’s loss. Part of that is due to Holl’s role on the penalty kill, sure. But at five-on-five in Toronto, the Lightning are outscoring the Leafs 6-0 with Holl on the ice and 7-0 when Giordano has been out there.
Still, look at the numbers in Tampa. With Holl on the ice at five-onfive, it’s been a workable 3-2 for Tampa. With Giordano at five-onfive, it’s been 3-1 for Toronto.
In other words: Be a goldfish. Forget history. Definitely forget the most recent two home games. The series is one game. If this is the year of the road team, there’s no reason why a short-memoried Toronto team can’t make Tampa its happy place.