Chow has put the right on edge
The surprise mayoral election is full of other surprises, like seeing the right on the defensive, chasing a progressive candidate with momentum and who is also in the lead.
Election day is still a month away and much can change by then of course, but a number of polls have consistently shown Olivia Chow soundly leading the pack. Considering the incredible number of people running in this election (102 at final count) and with a half dozen actual contenders who realistically have a chance to win, it’s a remarkable thing, and a remarkable moment for Toronto and Toronto progressives.
This is the first time since the 2006 election, when David Miller easily won his second term as mayor, that the progressive side of local politics is decisively out front, and it’s freaking people out, particularly those on the right.
One local newspaper dedicated its front page to Chow this past week, including her picture and the headline, “Not now, Chow.” On social media and elsewhere, some highprofile folks on the right side of the spectrum are looking noticeably jittery as they make proclamations that Chow would be the worst thing for the city right now and maybe even the worst mayor of all time. Calamity and civic dystopia are at our doorstep if we vote for this veteran of local and national politics, if this breathless hyperbole is to be believed.
Chow should probably take this all as a compliment: she’s become a proper threat to the right’s 12-year domination of the mayor’s office and it is novel to watch that side panic for a change, all of which is making this one of the most compelling elections to follow in a long time.
The left-right political spectrum lands a little differently at the municipal level than it does at other levels of government as there are no official parties here, so it’s more fluid. Considering the long shadow of John Tory and the Ford brothers on this election, for our purposes here the “right” who is very nervous about Chow’s surge includes the centre-right (some of them are “Blue Liberals” from the rightleaning side of that party) to the various shades of capital-C Conservative. This is the mélange that John Tory relied on for eight years.
Perhaps it’s not a surprise the other side is in the lead now. The campaign narratives from every candidate is that Toronto is in a bad place. It’s a city in decline where affordability, safety, transit, decay of the public realm and other critical issues are listed as its ailments. It’s no wonder everyone, the candidates and pundits alike, are calling for change. But this does put the right in a bit of a sticky position: they’ve been in power since 2010 and they are the ones who got Toronto to this place. Who else was it?
Mark Saunders is focusing his campaign squarely on public safety with him the guy to save the city, portraying Toronto as a crime ridden and scary place that needs him, the guy who was in charge of making Toronto a crime free and not scary place until quite recently. That’s some very curious logic for voters to swallow.
Other candidates like Ana Bailão and Brad Bradford were extremely loyal Tory councillors, relentlessly voting for his agenda, the one that got Toronto where it is today, making them also seem like unlikely changemakers. Bradford even attacked Chow by furiously tweeting, “she is captured by the NDP activist agenda.” This is curious coming from a councillor who made a big show about being non-partisan and willing to support every party over the last four years. He even tweeted a photo a year ago of him and NDP MPP Doly Begum out canvassing together during the provincial election. Which version of Bradford is sincere here?
When Chow threw her hat into this election there was a fair amount of grumbling from some progressive voters that this wasn’t the right time to come back. That it’s time for some generational change, to move away from the boomers who have dominated for so long, and that she was light on actual policy, relying too heavily on her record in politics, something she’s publicly
These very nervous attacks from the right could also galvanize even more voters behind Chow, doing exactly what her attackers meant not to do
been out of for years now.
These are all fair criticisms, but over these past few weeks Chow has released some substantive policy on housing and other issues. Moreover, she’s generally run a positive campaign without the attacks other candidates are resorting to. That’s refreshing and may turn a lot of reluctant progressive voters towards her, but these very nervous attacks from the right could also galvanize even more voters behind Chow, doing exactly what her attackers meant not to do. Expect more of it though.
Funny how that works. After more than a decade of decline, people want positive change rather than, quite literally, more of the same that other candidates are offering by simply being there and having a history we can all easily see.