Steep task for NDP to stop Smith sweep
Opinion polls suggest UCP leader is headed for victory, but will lose seats to Notley in close race
Alberta’s gruelling election campaign hasn’t just been a battle between the United Conservatives and New Democrats, but a struggle by the parties’ leaders to define themselves.
And UCP Leader Danielle Smith appears to be winning that fight over NDP Leader Rachel Notley, according to two new opinion polls as we enter the final weekend ahead of Monday’s vote.
It would seem Smith has succeeded in softening her antagonistic image, making herself out to be reasonable enough to keep enough conservative voters inside the UCP tent.
One thing that’s clear is that the UCP will lose seats on Monday while the NDP will gain seats.
It’s just not clear how many each will get. It’s still going to be the closest race in Alberta history.
To understand what’s happening in the final days of the Alberta election campaign, think of Smith and Notley as mountaineers.
To win, Notley needs to navigate an exceptionally steep and narrow path. Smith, on the other hand, could trip, fall over a cliff and still emerge victorious.
It’s a race to see who can first get to 44 — the minimum number of seats needed to form government in an 87-seat legislature. In the 2019 election, the NDP won 24 seats, the UCP 63. That means the NDP has to grab 20 more seats while the UCP could lose 19 seats and still win.
That’s why pretty much everyone is focused on numbers in a campaign that has often seemed too close to call. And it explains the obsession with opinion polls.
A new poll from Calgary-based polling company ThinkHQ said the NDP is slightly ahead in Battleground Calgary, but likely not far enough in front to win enough seats to form a government.
The other survey, from Calgarybased pollster Janet Brown, is more blunt, predicting the UCP will be re-elected.
ThinkHQ’s online poll of 1,054 Calgary residents May 19 to 23 indicates the NDP is ahead of the UCP in the city by 49 per cent to 43. That’s good news for the NDP, but likely not enough to win on Monday. ThinkHQ’s Marc Henry said, though, the NDP’s fight isn’t over.
“They could expect to capture up to nine additional seats, but it would still leave them short of forming government,” said Henry. “The election will likely be determined this weekend based on the final arguments put forward by the front-running parties and their strength on the ground in getting their voters to the polls.”
On the other hand, Brown’s poll, conducted for CBC News, surveyed 1,200 Albertans May 12 to 24 and found 52 per cent of decided/leaning voters support the UCP to 44 per cent for the NDP. Brown said the UCP is on track to win 51 seats to 36 for the NDP.
Why did the NDP fall so far back when they seemed ahead of the UCP or at least tied for much of the campaign?
Brown blames the NDP’s relentless negative attacks. “I think by focusing so much on Smith, (the NDP) gave people a reason to doubt Smith and her competence as leader, but they didn’t do enough to give people an affirmative reason to vote for the NDP,” Brown told the CBC.
Understandably, the NDP prefers Henry’s conclusion over Brown’s.
That’s why the party has spent the past few days heading into the final weekend promoting what it would do as a new government, including passing legislation to lower the cost of utility bills, help pay for children’s extracurricular activities, and extend subsidized child care to before-and-after-school care. The NDP would also take aim at UCP “pet projects” by scrapping the Alberta Sovereignty Act and preventing any future government from leaving the Canada Pension Plan.
The NDP’s policies have been announced previously but by packaging them as if they’re new, they are hoping to generate headlines and make themselves appear ready to govern.
The NDP is also taking aim at Albertans still sitting on the fence.
According to Henry’s survey, that’s about 10 per cent of Calgarians. According to Brown, that’s about 20 per cent of Albertans.
Notley is asking Smith-averse Conservatives to “lend” their vote to her while the UCP figures out its future with Smith, a leader found by Alberta’s ethics commissioner to have breached the Conflicts of Interest Act by trying to interfere in a criminal court case.
Smith has responded with a mixture of apology and misdirection rolled into an “I’m not perfect” defence. But as a polished speaker and debater, backed by $68 billion worth of spending promises from a new provincial budget, Smith has presented herself as someone much more reasonable and in tune with mainstream Albertans than the angry and divisive version of Smith who won the UCP leadership last year.
And, ironically, because Smith has made so many controversial comments and made so many mistakes before and after becoming premier, the scandals have become almost commonplace. They seem pretty much baked into the equation when Conservatives go to vote.
And having the word “Conservative” in the UCP’s title is enough to convince many centre-right Albertans to support the party, if not Smith.
Solidifying the case for the UCP was a third poll on Friday afternoon, this one from Leger, indicating even though the UCP and NDP are statistically tied provincewide and in Calgary, the UCP seems poised to win a majority of seats.
“The way the electoral maps are drawn, they (NDP) could win the popular vote and lose the election,” said Leger vice-president Ian Large. There is one wild card yet to be played in the campaign even if the UCP is ahead: voter turnout.
Both parties are scrambling to get out the vote and opinion polls could well play a part.
If not-keen-on-Smith UCP supporters see Brown’s poll and think the party doesn’t need their vote, they might stay home on Monday, allowing some toss-up ridings to flip to the NDP.
If armchair NDP supporters see ThinkHQ’s poll and think they can still snatch victory from the jaws of impending defeat, they might make sure to cast a ballot.
As it stands today, Smith seems more likely to win by losing seats than Notley does by winning seats.