The sequel that nobody wanted
Despite off-season makeover, this season is following a frustratingly familiar script
The Blue Jays entered this season expecting to contend for an American League East title while featuring a vastly different style compared to many of the teams that came before. A one-dimensional offence added left-handed bats to balance the order. The outfield was overhauled to improve athleticism and limit extra-base hits. Speed and versatility were behind every transaction beyond designated hitter.
The off-season strategy was to upgrade the pitching and defence to complement an everyday lineup designed to beat teams in a variety of ways. This group wasn’t going to sit back and wait for a homer, it intended on applying pressure by hitting balls to the gaps, moving runners over and taking extra bases.
The refresh was a success through much of April. The Jays opened with an 18-10 record while Kevin Kiermaier made dazzling plays in centre, reliever Erik Swanson put up zeroes and Chris Bassitt proved his worth as a reliable mid-rotation piece. For a few weeks, the only thing standing between the Jays and first place was a historic start by the Tampa Bay Rays.
May hasn’t been nearly as kind. The Jays entered Friday’s series opener in Minnesota with an 8-15 record this month after the bats went cold and pitchers became difficult to predict from one night to the next. After a recent homestand started with a sweep of the Atlanta Braves, the Jays dropped nine of their next 11 games to fall into last place, 10 1⁄2 games back of the Rays.
For anyone who hasn’t been following the Jays recently, everything they needed to know happened during Thursday’s series finale against the Rays. It wasn’t the loss itself that stood out, it was how the Jays went down.
There was the recurring theme of a non-competitive start from Alek Manoah. A finalist for the Cy Young Award last year, Manoah allowed two runs in the first inning, another in the second and two more in the third. It was the fifth time he allowed at least five runs and the eighth time in 11 outings he failed to toss more than five innings.
Much like José Berríos in 2022, Manoah has transitioned from ace to liability, seemingly overnight. His 5.54 ERA is the fifth-worst in the majors among qualified starters and nobody has allowed more baserunners than his 1.79 per inning. Manoah’s season- long struggles have stopped the Jays from getting on a roll and held back an otherwise satisfactory rotation that ranks10th with a 4.03 ERA.
Then, in the ninth inning, Daulton Varsho was set to bat with the bases loaded. He represented the tying run and was one swing away from potentially salvaging an otherwise disappointing series. Not long ago, that would have been considered the perfect opportunity for one of the off-season’s big additions to come through with a signature moment. Except, the moment never arrived. The guy acquired to become a featured left-handed bat — the cleanup hitter for much of the early season — was lifted for a pinch-hitter: Ernie Clement, a 27year-old utility man with a .206 lifetime average.
Clement flew out to centre and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. grounded out as the Jays squandered the rally. Much of the blame on social media was assigned to manager John Schneider for removing a supposed core piece in favour of a career minor-leaguer.
Sure, but lifting Varsho was entirely justifiable based on his numbers. It just didn’t make much sense to take him for a guy named Ernie. So whose fault is that? The manager? Or the architects of the roster for not having someone better?
The Jays’ decision to not upgrade their bench during the off-season was questionable before and it’s more questionable now, even without any major injuries. Pinch-hitting for a guy with a .563 on-base-plus-slugging percentage against left-handers shouldn’t be controversial, it should be automatic. It’s the lack of alternatives, which speak to the bigger issue.
Gabriel Moreno and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. — the two players traded for Varsho — have made the optics look worse.
While Varsho struggles, the two former Jays are thriving in Arizona. Moreno is batting .304 while throwing out 52 per cent of baserunners in his first full season. Gurriel is off to the best start of his career with a .928 OPS that would lead all Jays.
The Jays could live with that if Varsho was producing, but he’s not. Beyond his Gold Glove defence, he was acquired to make the lineup more dynamic. Instead, his .653 OPS — the league average is .739 for outfielders — has made it less potent. Brandon Belt, another recent addition, has performed better after a slow start but seems miscast as a middle-of-the-order bat at this stage of his career.
Further hampering the lineup has been the surprise regression of George Springer and Alejandro Kirk, who is set to take on a bigger role after Danny Jansen was placed on the injured list Friday afternoon. One of the few pleasant surprises has been Kiermaier with a .312 average, which based on his track record doesn’t seem sustainable.
Overall, the Jays rank 10th with 244 runs. Good, but like the rotation, not good enough in a division where greatness is required.
The Jays’ recent swoon resulted in a players-only meeting following Thursday’s loss. They held one last May, too, and another in July, and while the Jays eventually got their season back on track, the early woes cost them a shot at the division and an easier path through the playoffs.
A similar story is being told. Some of the faces are different, but the script has been the same. That will have to change soon, otherwise last year’s movie is destined to become the sequel nobody wanted.