Toronto crime and those most at risk

Several highly publicized street attacks in the Big Smoke lead to widespread panic. Crime becomes a major topic of discussion, and the public demands swift and certain action. In an effort to restore public confidence and public order, lawmakers rush through a variety of short-term, draconian measures.

That reads like a dystopian vision of Toronto’s future. But it is, in fact, a portrait of the past, specifically, that of the original Big Smoke — London, England — in 1744.

As historian Richard Ward details, a series of high-profile violent crimes in that year resulted in panic throughout the city, leading to implementation of various unproductive and counterproductive measures.

That’s worth remembering as we respond to a rash of highly publicized random attacks in Toronto. These incidents have convinced many Torontonians that crime is out of control, that things have never been this bad, a perception seized upon in the ongoing mayoralty campaign.

Torontonians are not alone: According to an April Léger opinion survey, fully 65 per cent of Canadians believe crime and violence have gotten worse, with half of those saying it’s much worse.

As is often the case, the statistics paint a more nuanced, and more complex, picture. Statistics Canada reports that the most highly publicized violent crime of late — gun crime — decreased by 22 per cent in Toronto between 2020 and 2021. Toronto Police Service data further reveal that gun violence dropped again in 2022, and has continued to decline precipitously this year.

Homicides and gun crimes are down

Similarly, the most serious violent crime — homicide — decreased by 18 per cent between 2021 and 2022, and is down another 18.5 per cent so far this year.

Most Torontonians are, then, at relatively low risk of experiencing serious, violent crime. But that’s not to suggest everything’s rosy, since the complex portrait painted by the statistics has a dark side: Although assaults were steady in 2020 and 2021, they rose by more than 10 per cent last year, and increased another 18 per cent over the first five months of 2023.

When it comes to violent victimization, Canada’s vaunted commitment to equality breaks down: According to Statistics Canada’s most recent General Social Survey, Canadians are anything but equal when it comes to the risk of being assaulted.

Those who have experienced homelessness within the last five years are at five times the risk of violent victimization, and those with disabilities are three times more likely to suffer a violent event. Canadians with a mental health-related disability are at even greater risk than those with physical disabilities, with seven in 10 having suffered a physical assault.

Disadvantaged are at higher risk of victimization

Childhood maltreatment, including abuse, neglect and witnessing family violence, is also linked with victimization, with people who were physically or sexually abused as children at three times the risk of violence. And Canadians with low incomes are twice as likely to be violently victimized as others.

Homeless, mentally ill and other vulnerable individuals are therefore at considerably higher risk for victimization than others. And this casts the traditional debate between those advocating tough-on-crime measures and those proposing improved housing and health care in a very different light.

Underlying both of those narratives is the same sinister subtext, one that suggests disadvantaged, homeless and mentally ill people are inherently dangerous, that if we just get them under control — through draconian measures or through housing, health care and social services — then the rest of us will be safe.

In reality, we need homes and health care not because those without them are the perpetrators of violence, but because they’re the victims of it.

Public safety, particularly on the TTC, has been central issue in Toronto’s mayoralty campaign. At a debate this week, Mark Saunders, the former Toronto police chief, ranked it as the No. 1 issue, especially safety on the subway. Brad Bradford said that safety worries are the main reason that people aren’t riding transit. There have been promises of extra transit staff and special constables deployed on the transit system.

Encouragingly, this election campaign has seen some recognition that the solutions must go beyond that. There have been proposals from some candidates for improved health supports and crisis intervention. And there has been welcome focus on housing affordability with proposals for more affordable rental housing and targeted help for those without a home.

If we’re really committed to ensuring the welfare of all Torontonians, not just those who already enjoy relative safety, then we’ll do the right thing for the right reason: We’ll eschew the panic-informed policies of yesteryear and embrace the evidence-informed policies of today so that everyone can enjoy a safer tomorrow.

Those who have experienced homelessness within the last five years are at five times the risk of violent victimization, and those with disabilities are three times more likely to suffer a violent event. Canadians with a mental health-related disability are at even greater risk than those with physical disabilities, with seven in 10 having suffered a physical assault