Season so far mirrors that of Mets
If there’s another major-league team that can relate to the lows the Blue Jays experienced in May, it’s the New York Mets. For a stretch of several weeks, baseball’s biggest spender was also its biggest disappointment.
The Mets, much like the Jays, opened the year expecting to contend for a division title. A decent enough April then gave way to a 5-11 stretch in May that saw the Mets dip as low as fourth place in the National League East standings. The tabloids went wild.
Buck Showalter’s squad survived that early swoon by bouncing back with 10 wins over its next 14. The Mets entered Friday’s rain-delayed series opener against the Jays with a one-game lead over the Pittsburgh Pirates for the third wildcard spot, and 3 1 ⁄ games back of the 2 first-place Atlanta Braves. Crisis averted, for now.
The Jays are hoping to follow a similar path. After a 2-9 stretch through the American League East, they arrived in New York having won each of their last two series. A small but vital step for a fourthplace team that was 3 1 ⁄ games back 2 of the Yankees for the final wild card.
It seemed almost fitting that the Jays and Mets were set to face each other on Friday with the same 3027 record. After all, the clubs have been continuously linked since free-spending owner Steve Cohen’s arrival in 2020 coincided with the Jays’ decision to significantly increase payroll.
When other teams cut costs during the pandemic, the Jays and Mets reinvested in their on-field products, which left them competing for the same players. During the winter of 2020-21, the Mets beat out the Jays for star shortstop Francisco Lindor, and the reverse was true for outfielder George Springer.
Last off-season was similar. The Jays were linked to free-agent outfielder Brandon Nimmo before he re-signed with the Mets for $162 million (U.S.) and there was interest in Friday night’s starter Justin Verlander before he joined former teammate Max Scherzer on a two- year deal.
The Jays, however, didn’t come away empty-handed. They poached righty Chris Bassitt, who was the Mets’ second-best starter in 2022 and now finds himself serving in the same role with the Jays. Bassitt, despite a pair of rough outings
in late May, has performed as expected with a respectable 3.80 ERA before Friday’s matchup.
The Mets’ play has improved of late, but they were still expected to be much better. The team that finished last season with 101 wins, before losing to the San Diego Padres in the wild-card series, has yet to build on that success. Their starstudded rotation ranks 23rd with a disappointing 4.55 ERA. The offence, which ranks 16th, hasn’t been much better with 253 runs.
An early-season injury to Verlander, which cost him a month, didn’t help. Nor did the prolonged struggles of Lindor, who was arguably once the face of the game and now finds himself (in year two of a 10year deal worth $341 million) hitting .220 with a mediocre .715 onbase plus slugging percentage.
The Jays know all about those issues. Alek Manoah, who finished third in last year’s Cy Young voting, has held back an otherwise productive rotation with his 5.46 ERA. The offence has yet to click, thanks at least partly to Springer’s woes and an OPS that was just .002 higher than Lindor’s heading into Friday.
This wasn’t the start that either team wanted, but they have plenty of time to turn it around. The Mets, with the eighth-hardest remaining schedule, have a 12.5 per cent chance of winning their division per FanGraphs, and a 67.3 per cent chance of making the playoffs. The Jays, with the seventh-hardest schedule, have a 5.5 per cent shot at the East and 45.5 per cent at a wild card.
The road ahead should be easier for the Mets, if for no other reason than their division. The NL East is tough, but not in the same way as its AL counterpart. The last-place Nationals are a nonfactor, the defending NL champion Philadelphia Phillies are six games under .500 and the Miami Marlins remain unproven, which leaves the Braves as the only real threat for now.
The Jays, meanwhile, have their hands full with three legitimate contenders in the Tampa Bay Rays, Baltimore Orioles and New York Yankees while also dealing with the pesky Boston Red Sox. That’s how a team like the Mets can still be within striking distance of the Braves, while the Jays are simply trying to catch up with the rest of the pack.
It’s June and four of the seven teams with the highest payrolls are out of a playoff spot. The Mets, having spent more than anyone, are holding on to theirs by one game. Money hasn’t bought much of anything in the first half, but the two teams battling it out this weekend hope that narrative changes soon.