Is it time for Notley to move on?
Alberta NDP chief’s leadership in spotlight after two straight election losses
EDMONTON For the Alberta NDP, it’s a difficult but inevitable question: What happens to Rachel Notley now?
After leading her party for a third straight election, and coming close to a win last Monday, her leadership has a question mark hanging over it.
The NDP fell short of Danielle Smith and the United Conservative Party when it came to both the popular vote and the seat count. The NDP took 38 seats — up from 24 last time — compared to the UCP’s 49.
But the orange brand in Alberta made gains over the last election, particularly in Calgary. Had several thousand votes in the city gone a different way in some ridings where the margin of victory was razor-thin, the election could have been a different story.
The last time Notley lost an election — the 2019 vote that drummed her party out of office during a decisive win for the UCP — her leadership was barely questioned. She had, after all, been the only leader to topple the 44-year Progressive Conservative dynasty with her 2015 election win, shattering the national image of Alberta’s politics as boring and dominated only by the right. And she remained popular.
Things seem different these days, though. Rarely does a Canadian leader take on a fourth election, especially after losing two in a row.
And some within her party are rumoured to be eyeing her spot.
Shannon Phillips, the MLA for Lethbridge-West and former environment minister, is being urged by a group inside the party to run should Notley decide to step down. The foundation for such a run is being laid, a source with knowledge of it told the Star.
“Rachel’s had the ability to hold the party’s base together and grow the party at the same time,” said the source, who discussed internal matters on the condition their name not be published.
“There’s a group of us in Calgary that have long thought that Shannon has that ability, too.”
Work is ongoing to convince her, said the source, and Phillips is being deferential to Notley.
Others potential contenders within the party include Sarah Hoffman, MLA for Edmonton-Glenora, and David Shepherd, MLA for Edmonton-Centre. Public speculation typically turns toward highprofile people outside the party, such as former Calgary mayor Naheed Nenshi, but some NDP insiders don’t buy that as a possibility.
Notley is reflecting on the loss, party sources say. But a decision one way or another will have to be made somewhat soon — it takes time for a new leader to get situated, political observers say.
Among the reasons Notley might stay on, at least for a time, is that the party, coming out of Monday’s vote, has a swath of new MLAs who may need veteran guidance as they transition to a life in public office.
The likelihood of her remaining to lead the NDP in the next election has definitely decreased after Monday, said Leah Ward, vice-president at Wellington Advocacy and former director of communications for Notley.
Still, in a party where she is “incredibly well respected and adored,” it will be up to her, and it’s highly unlikely she gets pushed out through a leadership review, Ward added.
“Most parties that have a leader who takes them through three elections and, in her case, two of those were unsuccessful, you know, that’s when people start thinking about making a change,” said Ward.
Ward notes the UCP’s majority is fragile with 49 MLAs — minus one who is set to sit as an Independent and one who will likely be chosen as Speaker.
Having an experienced Opposition leader could help the party, should the government crumble over an internal dispute. And that’s a real possibility for a United Conservative Party that has been marked by infighting and division, including the kind that forced out founding leader Jason Kenney.
In that situation, the NDP would need a talented leader with experience, but it would also need a “good retail politician,” said Lori Williams, a policy studies professor at Mount Royal University.
“People that can connect with people, that are good with speaking off the cuff,” she said. “Notley is pretty extraordinary, in that respect.
“You need a leader who can really offer an alternative at a time like that, somebody who has respect and credibility.”
Publicly, Notley has said she’ll stay on as party and official Opposition leader, but the question remains: for how long?
“I think she has earned the right to make that decision herself,” says Mike McKinnon, a senior consultant with Enterprise Canada and campaigner for the NDP during the election.
“One of the things that I don’t think many Albertans know is that Rachel Notley really built this thing with her bare hands long before we all got to know Rachel Notley, the politician.”
In the 1990s and 2000s, Notley volunteered, did organizing work and advised the party, long before she actually ran as a candidate and won in 2008, he said.
“That’s a really unique position that you don’t find a lot of politicians and a lot of leaders in, that their blood, sweat and tears are so ingrained into the strong Alberta NDP that exists today,” McKinnon said.
“I think whatever she decides is going to be the right direction, I really do.”
A through-line using the Notley name can practically be drawn from 1968 to the present. Rachel’s father, the storied Grant Notley, led the party from 1968 until his death in a plane crash in 1984. Peter Lougheed, who sat across the aisle from Notley and served as a Progressive Conservative premier, had respect for his political foe.
When Notley died, Lougheed called it a “sad and tragic event in the history of our province” and said the NDP leader’s ideas sometimes helped shape government policy.
“For those who are not intimately involved in the parliamentary system, it is perhaps difficult to appreciate the degree of mutual respect that emanates from those who participate on the floor of the legislative assembly,” he’s quoted as saying in the Edmonton Journal after Notley’s death.
Afterward, Rachel was never far from the party for which her dad had almost singlehandedly laid the foundation.
In 1994, during a 10th-anniversary gathering in Edmonton marking his death, just after the Alberta NDP had suffered a catastrophic electoral loss — failing to win a single seat — a 30-year-old Notley offered words of encouragement to the members gathered there, by reminding them of his fortitude.
“My father would not have walked away from the fight,” she said. “In remembrance, neither should we.”