Visa restrictions on Mexicans could save billions

Regulatory analysis says Canada’s new requirements could lead to decline in tourism revenue

Imposing visa restrictions on some Mexican nationals could save the Canadian government $6.6 billion over the next 10 years, newly published estimates suggest.

Over the same amount of time, the loss to Canada’s economy from a decline in tourism is pegged at $997 million, although the government says the decrease in the number of Mexicans coming to Canada is projected to be less than the last time the two countries butted heads on immigration restrictions in 2009.

The regulatory analysis of the visa requirement’s projected impact was published by the federal government this week in the wake of its February announcement of the policy change.

Canada now requires Mexicans arriving by land or boat to have a visa, or if they are flying, to have a visa unless they’ve held one in the last 10 years or already have a valid U.S. visa. Previously, only an electronic travel authorization was required.

Immigration Marc Miller has said the decision to make the change was driven by the impact on Canada’s immigration system of the number of asylum claims lodged by Mexicans.

In 2023, asylum claims from Mexicans represented 18 per cent of the total number of claims filed, and the majority of claims were abandoned, withdrawn or rejected by the Immigration and Refugee Board.

“Most Mexican claims are made at airports on arrival, an indication that claiming asylum, not visiting, was the true purpose of travel,” the government’s regulatory analysis said.

The analysis of cost savings includes not just the cost of processing claims, but all the other funding involved in supporting asylumseekers — including health care, housing and shelter costs — which are borne by all three levels of government.

Another benefit noted by the document: “improved public confidence in Canada’s immigration system by upholding the integrity of the Temporary Resident Program.”

Critics have questioned the integrity of Canada’s immigration system amid reports of newcomers being unable to find housing, relying on food banks or simply just giving up and going home. Tensions between Ottawa and other levels of government over the costs of supporting newcomers, as well as whether businesses and schools bringing them in are adequately prepared to support them, have also added pressure.

The Conservative government of Stephen Harper also used concerns about the integrity of the system when it imposed a visa requirement on Mexicans in 2009, part of an overhaul of Canada’s immigration policy. At the time, it did not tally up the potential system savings of requiring visas, although it did note they could bring in $90 million in visa fees over five years.

The Tourism Industry Association of Ontario has said Mexico accounts for $236 million in visitor spending annually, with travellers staying just over two weeks at a time. The recent visa changes, it said, have already wiped out April and May for many businesses as pre-existing trips had to be cancelled. The association has urged the government to ensure the new visas and travel documents are processed quickly.

The analysis estimates the number of Mexicans entering Canada “may be reduced” by approximately one million over 10 years.

“As many Mexican visitors will continue to be eligible to travel to Canada with an (electronic travel authorization) following the regulatory amendments, it is expected that the overall reduction in travel will be less than when the visa was imposed in 2009,” it said.

The 2009 visa requirement became a major diplomatic irritant between Canada and Mexico, and in lifting it in 2016, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau heralded a new age in Canada-Mexico relations.

To what extent the current move might renew that chill remains to be seen. When the visa requirement was lifted in 2016, Mexico’s flagship airline immediately began increasing flights to Canada. A spokesman for Aeromexico told the Star on Thursday that no schedule changes are currently in the works.

While Mexico’s foreign affairs ministry has expressed displeasure, its embassy in Ottawa did not respond to questions from the Star on Thursday about whether any retaliatory measures are planned.

The savings include not just the cost of processing claims, but all funding involved in supporting asylumseekers, including health care, housing and shelter costs