Return on investment
Jays will need playoff success to justify staying among MLB’s big spenders
The Blue Jays’ off-season left a lot to be desired but this wasn’t a year when the lack of activity could be blamed on ownership.
Since 2020, the Jays’ payroll has been on the rise. This season is no exception with estimated salaries of approximately $236 million (U.S.), sixth highest in the majors behind the Mets, Dodgers, Yankees, Phillies and Astros, according to FanGraphs.
The expenses have reached the point where the Jays are about to become a luxury taxpaying team for the second consecutive year, which is something they had never done prior to 2023. Hundreds of millions were also dumped into Rogers Centre renovations and a new player development complex.
Money hasn’t been an issue for the Jays lately. Even during what many considered to be a lacklustre off-season, the club dished out more than $45 million to Justin Turner, Chad Green, Kevin Kiermaier, Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Yariel Rodriguez.
It’s difficult to criticize the level of financial support from Rogers Communications. Sure, as one of baseball’s richest owners, the faceless corporation could always agree to spend more, but Toronto will never be New York or Los Angeles. It should, however, continue to be a top-10 market and payroll has resembled that the last two years.
If the Jays fall short this season, payroll won’t be the cause. How the front office spent the money could be, especially considering there isn’t much salary relief coming next winter to form a recovery plan if things go south.
The Jays are spending approximately $75.7 million on a starting rotation that includes Kevin Gausman ($22M), Chris Bassitt ($22M), Jose Berrios ($17.7M), Yusei Kikuchi ($10M) and, since he has the highest remaining guaranteed salary, Rodriguez ($4M). It’s a high figure but one that’s backed by results after an almost identical group combined to produce a 3.85 ERA last season.
A pricey starting five is typically offset by an inexpensive bullpen, but the Jays have spent a lot of money there, too. Green received a two-year deal worth $21 million, and Jordan Romano will earn $7.75 million. Add in Yimi Garcia, Tim Mayza, Erik Swanson, Trevor Richards, Genesis Cabrera and Nate Pearson and the group’s tally exceeds $35 million.
In total, the Jays are spending approximately $111 million on their pitching staff, more than the entire payroll of nine other teams, including division rivals Tampa Bay and Baltimore. Still, after posting the fourth-best ERA in the majors last season, one could argue it has been money well spent.
The same can’t necessarily be said about the everyday lineup. The Jays are spending approximately $103 million on their starting nine and an additional $8.3 million on their bench. Including pre-arbitration salaries, player benefits and other ancillary fees, the club’s competitive balance tax payroll sits at an estimated $249 million, well above the first tax threshold of $237 million.
A lot of fans were left disappointed by the lack of impact moves made this off-season, but next winter might be worse unless the club sheds salary, or gets approval for another large increase.
Toronto has approximately $44.85 million coming off the books when Turner, Kikuchi, Garcia, Richards, Kiermaier and Danny Jansen become eligible for free agency. That sounds like a lot but it’s slightly less than what the Jays spent this winter and doesn’t account for raises elsewhere.
Bichette’s salary is set to increase by $5.5 million, while Gausman and Berrios will earn an additional $1 million each. Add in the projected increases to salary arbitration players, including Guerrero, and that $44.85-million figure could be cut in half before anyone re-signs or their replacements are found.
The biggest reason the Jays’ payroll has become bloated is the lack of pre-arbitration eligible players who earn close to the league minimum. The Jays have just 3.3 per cent of their salaries dedicated to those players, above only the Mets and Dodgers.
And sure, part of that low percentage can be tied to the Jays’ high payroll, but Davis Schneider might be the only position player in his first three seasons who has a shot at a meaningful role this season.
The easiest way to offset the increasing costs of players like Guerrero, Bichette and Romano is by promoting prospects. The Jays were able to sign Springer and Gausman to deals worth more than $100 million because of an affordable young core. That group has gotten older, and more expensive, so there needs to be another influx of young talent. And beyond Ricky Tiedemann and Orelvis Martinez, there are issues with a minorleague system ranked 24th by Baseball America.
If the Jays break through this season and achieve their long-awaited success, there will be enough money to keep the current group together. But if they fall short and require anything more than minor tweaks, the lack of flexibility is going to be problematic.
An additional concern is that support from Rogers typically comes with an expiry date. From 2013-15, the Jays operated with a top-10 payroll. By 2019, they had dropped to 20th. Payroll has been on the rise since then, with the Jays back in the top 10 the last three years.
But if the Jays intend on hanging on to Guerrero and Bichette long term, it likely will require post-season success and the payoff for ownership that comes with it.