Headed on a race to the bottom

Fans split on tank to boost chance at keeping draft pick

With 14 games left in the regular season, the Raptors could mathematically catch the Atlanta Hawks for the final play-in spot in the Eastern Conference. But with Scottie Barnes and Jakob Poeltl injured and out for the foreseeable future, they have a better chance of finishing in the bottom six overall in the NBA.

It’s become a divisive issue among the fan base because they owe a protected draft pick to the San Antonio Spurs. Confused? Here’s what’s in play down the stretch for the Raptors, who were tied with the Memphis Grizzlies for the sixthworst record prior to Monday’s games:

The Poeltl factor

When the Raptors acquired Poeltl from the Spurs at last year’s trade deadline, they sent Khem Birch, a top-six protected first-round selection in this year’s draft and two second-rounders to San Antonio. That means the Raptors only keep this summer’s first-round pick if it’s among the top six after the May 12 draft lottery. Finishing with the sixth-worst record would be no guarantee, and yet seventh from the bottom might be enough with some lottery luck.

The lottery

All 14 teams that miss the playoffs will have a shot at a top-four pick when the ping-pong balls are drawn in Chicago. The teams with the worst records have a better chance of moving up. In 2021, the Raptors finished with the seventhworst mark and moved up three spots to select Barnes at No. 4.

The team with the sixth-worst record in the final overall standings will have a 29.8 per cent chance of falling to the No. 7 pick, and a 20.5 per cent chance of dropping to No. 8. The sixth-worst team also has an 8.6 per cent chance of staying at No. 6, and a 37.2 per cent shot at the top four.

If the Raptors’ pick is out of the top six, it will go the Spurs.

Other picks

The Raptors have another firstround pick, top-three protected, from the Pascal Siakam trade with the Indiana Pacers. The Pacers are likely to finish in the middle of the pack. The Raptors also own Detroit’s high second-round pick via the New York Knicks from the OG Anunoby trade.

Let it go

Some fans want the Raptors to give up the pick to the Spurs this season because none of the top draft prospects are projected to develop into cornerstones — unlike last year’s prize, Victor Wembanyama. Next year’s class is expected to be much stronger. If the Raptors don’t give up the pick to San Antonio this year, the scenario will play out again after next season.

Tough finish

It doesn’t get any easier for the Raptors down the stretch (or it does, depending on your point of view). Of their last 14 games, 10 will be against teams over .500. They will face Miami (twice), New York, Philadelphia, L.A. Lakers, Indiana, Milwaukee, Minnesota, Oklahoma City and Sacramento. The other four games will be against Washington and Brooklyn, both with losing records.