Expectations for Varsho are on the upswing this season
Outfielder’s performance at plate ‘night and day’ compared to last year
CLEARWATER, FLA. Daulton Varsho had a lot on his plate last year. As the prized acquisition in an off-season trade with the Diamondbacks, he was billed as a key player on a team with aspirations of a World Series.
Maybe the expectations, and the pressures that came with it, were too much because somewhere along the way the 27-year-old tried to become someone he’s not. Instead of putting the ball in play and using speed to his advantage, Varsho started chasing homers.
There were times when the strategy worked because of his raw power. Varsho tied for third on the Blue Jays with 20 home runs, but his numbers suffered elsewhere. His on-base plus slugging percentage dropped from .745 to .674 and he finished with fewer hits and runs than in 2022.
The focus this spring has been on getting Varsho back to where he was a few years ago. Tweaks were made to produce a more level swing with the hope of generating line drives instead of fly balls that turn into routine catches.
The strategy appears to be working. Varsho is batting .286 with an .808 OPS across parts of 19 spring games. He hit just .196 last spring with a .636 OPS, numbers that became eerily similar to what he produced during the regular season.
“Last year, I had a really high flyball percentage,” said Varsho, who trailed only Matt Chapman for the Jays’ highest rate at 47.2 per cent. “Most of the time you’re going to be out. You look at a lot of the great hitters, all their balls are hit low on the line. The missiles are homers and doubles off the wall. I’m trying to create damage by being on top (of the ball) so I can hit liners.”
Spring training stats don’t mean much of anything. They get tossed out on opening day and tend not to get mentioned again for the rest of the year. Spring success often turns into fool’s gold and extended slumps can be equally misleading. It’s best not to read into the results.
Still, it’s hard not to contrast Varsho’s success this month with what he did a year ago. His strikeouts are down, his walks are up and there has been a lot of hard contact, which has led to a slight uptick in hits.
Beyond Varsho’s mechanics, an increased comfort level could be a factor. Varsho desperately wanted to live up to the hype last season after the Jays gave up Gabriel Moreno and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. to acquire him. A year later, it’s becoming easier to focus on the things he controls.
“It’s night and day,” Jays manager John Schneider said when asked about how Varsho looks this spring compared to a year ago. “I think whenever you get traded, you’re trying to impress people and learn a new league. Being familiar with the staff, teammates, helps. I love what he’s done on the bases, too. You’re seeing the whole game of Varsh come out this spring.”
The interesting thing about Varsho is that he doesn’t have to be an elite hitter to provide value. Even if he can become league average with the bat, the rest of his skill set will allow him to be a well-above average player overall.
According to Statcast, Varsho ranked near the bottom of the league in batting run value last season. He was elite just about everywhere else with baserunning value in the 95th percentile and fielding run value in the 96th. His 2.2 wins above replacement were tied for fourth on the Jays.
Most of that value was on the defensive end where Varsho finished tied with Kevin Kiermaier for the team lead with 18 defensive runs saved.
He was also worth an extra three runs on the basepaths, tied for 14th in the majors. No other Jay ranked inside the top 50.
The tools are there, it’s just a matter of putting everything together with the bat. Varsho’s .674 OPS last season was well below the league average of .734. If he can narrow that gap in 2024, the Jays’ outfield, which was one of the lowest-performing units in the league last season, should be in much better shape.
“Everybody wants to everybody to hit .300 with 30 homers,” Jays outfielder George Springer said. “That’s not going to happen. It’s a much different style game in the National League than it is the American. He’s still young and he’s still learning. Obviously, you want him to have all the cool numbers, but if you don’t like Daulton Varsho, there’s something wrong with you.”
The Jays hope that, within a couple of months, most of Varsho’s haters will have disappeared. If the new swing carries his strong spring numbers into the regular season, their wish will almost assuredly be granted.