Trudeau’s Liberals have lost their way
I joined the federal Liberal party 20 years ago this spring because I deeply admired the party’s commitment to fiscal discipline, human rights and national unity as exemplified by the governments of Jean Chrétien and Paul Martin.
My involvement in Liberal politics has shaped my career and personal life in ways I could never have imagined when I first showed up at my local MP’s campaign office in 2004.
In 2015, I was one of thousands of Liberals from across Canada to volunteer on the party’s campaign, which ended a decade of Conservative rule catapulting Justin Trudeau’s third-place Liberals to a majority government. It was an exhilarating time to be a Liberal: the dawn of a new, hopeful era.
Trudeau has been a consequential prime minister. He’s ushered Canada into an unmistakably progressive age, enacting policies that won’t easily be reversed by his successors.
While Trudeau has deftly navigated a litany of global and domestic crises, the unrelenting affordability crisis has been one he and his government haven’t been able to get a handle on from day one. So much so that in 2024, the bottom is falling out from beneath the Liberal party.
It pains me to say it, but the party’s leadership doesn’t appear to have a credible plan to staunch the bleeding as they face off against the unconventional, yet extremely talented opponent that is Pierre Poilievre. Over the past year, Poilievre’s Conservatives have opened up a 15to 20-point lead over Trudeau’s Liberals, well ahead in every province except Quebec.
The perilous backdrop I describe is borne out by substantial anecdotal evidence among my broader professional and social networks in the Liberal bastion of Toronto.
I’m increasingly coming across small-l liberals who can no longer support the federal Liberals. These are people that were reliable supporters of the party in 2015, 2019 and even in 2021.
But since 2021, they’ve drifted: some are unhappy with all parties and will stay home; but many of these hyper-urban voters are falling into the Conservatives’ hands — albeit reluctantly.
This development represents a failure on the Liberal party’s part to maintain support from Canadians naturally inclined to vote for governments implementing centrist to progressive policy agendas.
The “Liberal drifters” appear overwhelmingly urban, socially progressive and white-collar. Many are women, newer Canadians or members of the LGBTQ community. They have traditionally represented the party’s base integral to its three consecutive victories.
They believe Trudeau’s Liberals no longer represent their values. More alarming, they don’t believe this government is offering them a blueprint to realize the Canadian dream of economic mobility.
The result: many of these Liberal drifters are willing to roll the dice on a right-wing, populist government led by Poilievre.
As a long-time Liberal activist, this realization is painful for me because I know these voters’ values don’t align with Poilievre’s aggressive brand of conservatism that will negatively impact our most vulnerable.
There are a myriad of reasons for the Liberal party’s precipitous downfall in public support.
While meaning well, my party has too often prioritized virtue signalling over substance, failed to meaningfully address issues related to debt and economic growth and taken certain demographics for granted.
Above all, we’ve failed to prioritize the affordability crisis with the political and public policy urgency it demands.
Canadians are struggling economically amidst an unrelenting affordability crisis. We’re poorer on a per-capita basis and there is no evidence that we’ll recover from this prolonged economic slump anytime soon.
The Organization for Economic Co-Operation and Development (OECD) projects that among its nearly 40 members, Canada will experience the slowest real GDP per capita growth through to 2060. Many have rightly concluded that these trends amount to a “growth crisis.”
In 2024, there are no quick fixes for Trudeau’s Liberal party. A change in leadership at the eleventh hour is unlikely to have the impact many cling to.
The post-2013 Liberal party built around Trudeau’s image and progressive vision has had no shortage of political and policy successes. But if it’s to meaningfully rebuild in a post-Trudeau era, it must address its mistakes with grit and humility.