Could Alberta be growing too fast?
Alberta is attracting newcomers like no other province.
But two rolling power blackouts last week indicated that it may be growing too fast. That was the second electricity crisis this year. In January, demand was so high during a vicious cold snap that the utility administrator pleaded with Albertans to turn off some of their appliances. A similar grid alert was issued last August when temperatures rose to abnormal highs.
The rush to Alberta is reminiscent of the oilsands boom, although now some people are coming not for the lucrative jobs in the oilpatch, but because in Alberta owning your own home is much less expensive than owning one in Toronto or Vancouver.
In Toronto, the average price for a house is $1.1 million; in Calgary about $600,000. Housing in commuter cities and towns on the outskirts of Calgary and Edmonton is even less. So if you sell your Ontario property and move here, you could be mortgage free.
But not everyone is coming from other provinces because of house prices. Sixty-five per cent of newcomers were immigrants or temporary international residents (workers, students and visitors).
Together the newcomers boosted Alberta’s population by 4.4 per cent in 2023, the highest rate among the provinces, bringing it to about 4.8 million. That’s up by over half a million people in four years.
Some of the newcomers will no doubt be working on the construction of Dow Inc.’s immense $9-billion net-zero petrochemical project in Fort Saskatchewan just east of Edmonton. Dow estimates it will have 6,000 construction workers on site by summer. Other professionals and trades people are also in demand.
While more people means more economic activity and therefore more opportunity to earn a good income, not everyone is happy. Besides intermittent loss of electricity, there is also a looming water shortage due to widespread drought that is leaving rivers and reservoirs dry. Calgary city officials have already asked consumers to cut back on water; restrictions could be in place by early summer.
Farmers who depend on irrigation for bumper crops are trying to figure out how to get the water they will need this spring and summer. Meanwhile urban sprawl is eating up crop and grass lands.
Some small cities and towns within easy reach of Calgary and Edmonton can’t keep up with the pace of growth. Leduc, just south of Edmonton, has seen the city’s population increase by roughly nine per cent since 2019. It’s now home to around 36,060 people.
Leduc Mayor Bob Young said they’ve seen growth spurts in the city before, but not like this. More people means more pressure on its recreation and emergency facilities. It’s already planning to build a third fire hall.
“These facilities aren’t getting cheaper, they’re getting more expensive. It is a challenge,” he told CBC.
Add to all of this the uncertainty about oil and gas prices, a vital component of the province’s economy and the government’s treasury, and things could get a little shaky.
But the population increases are likely to continue.
The federal government is planning for 500,000 more immigrants a year. Alberta Premier Danielle Smith is aiming to double the province’s population by 2050. The Century Initiative, a group of eminent Canadians, wants to see Canada’s population increase to 100 million by 2100.
All of this raises questions about just how much and how fast populations should grow so as not to make life worse for a lot of people. Most Canadians seem to think the country is a boundless, open frontier with lots of room for everyone. But is it?
There is another factor to take into account: climate change. Can we support rapid growth when there is drought, wildfires, smoky air, floods and heat domes to contend with?
What’s needed now is a lot of luck and some far-sighted planning. Let’s hope there’s time to do that before it’s too late.