Defence plan falls short
Canada’s updated defence policy is a promising package of new funding and dramatic new capabilities for the country’s military at a time of worrisome international threats and geopolitical uncertainty.
Read a little closer though and the document is more aspiration than action, at least in the short term. The document — titled “Our North, Strong and Free: A Renewed Vision for Canada’s Defence” — does a good job of setting out the risks that confront Canada and the evolving threats on the global stage.
It declares that the “most urgent and important task” is asserting Canada’s sovereignty in the Arctic and the north, where climate change is making the region more accessible. It highlights the actions of “disruptive” states like Russia and China and underscores their “troubling” alliances North Korea and Iran. It notes the changing nature of conflict, with the rise of technology, such as drones, increasing threats in cyberspace and cyber warfare. “The stable and predictable world in which Canada has thrived is under increasing strain,” it states. “Our allies and partners in Europe are facing the most serious security threats in decades.”
But the strategy’s response to those serious threats — in terms of extra cash and capabilities for the military — don’t match the urgency that world events would dictate.
It floats the acquisition of new weapons and equipment for the Armed Forces yet many of these are only musings. For example, decisions to get new vehicles built for Arctic terrain, upgrade or replace the fleets of battle tanks and light armoured vehicles, acquire drones and air and sea missiles and other capabilities are addressed with the vague phrase “we will explore options.”
The updated defence strategy does earmark billions of dollars more for defence — $8 billion over the next five years but the bulk of that funding is back-loaded. Less than half will flow in the first three years. The new spending will push Canada’s defence budget to 1.76 per cent of gross domestic product by 2029-30, up from 1.33 per cent. That is meaningful progress toward the two per cent benchmark set by NATO but still leaves Canada short. Nor is there a timeline to meet the NATO target, which was affirmed by NATO nations, including Canada, a decade ago.
This strategy is also threatened by the chronic problems of procurement and personnel, which have bedevilled the evolution of the military, hobbled its operations and threaten its future aspirations. Neither problem is new. Both have defied solutions.
Vice-Admiral Angus Topshee, the commander of the Royal Canadian Navy, warned last fall that a shortage of sailors and aging ships had left the navy in a critical state. A lack of technicians has meant that only one of the new Arctic and offshore patrol ships can be in use at any one time, even though four could be deployed.
The military is short some 15,000 people, a gap the strategy says is “unsustainable and needs to be filled rapidly.” It says the military will “modernize” its recruitment methods with initiatives such as a probationary period to get new recruits in the door faster, streamlined security screening and a review of existing medical requirements. Even then, building the forces back to strength let alone expanding the ranks will take eight years. That’s a long time to make do with a short-staffed military.
On the procurement front, where some may see the promise of new capabilities for the Armed Forces, others see project delays and cost overruns, the result of chronic dysfunction in how the government purchases equipment for the military.
In a series of audits, the federal auditor general found significant delays in the national shipbuilding strategy that meant existing ships could be retired before new vessels were ready to replace them. While the strategy cites the north as an urgent priority, a 2022 audit found that even then the government had not taken required action to address long-standing gaps affecting its surveillance of Canada’s Arctic waters. The strategy acknowledges that procurement takes too long. “We will think differently about how we procure equipment, how to better maintain and upgrade it over time,” the strategy states.
Canada’s military exists to defend the country’s sovereignty and its citizens. That includes meeting security threats but increasingly to assist when natural disasters strike, such as floods and wildfires. It exists as well to deploy abroad to defend Canadian interests, support allies and provide assistance during humanitarian crises. Yet the Armed Forces has been stretched to respond to these increasing demands.
The revised defence strategy has the potential to make the military more responsive and capable. But only if the Liberal government acts with urgency to make promises of cash and equipment a reality.