Rotation looks strong, but …
The starting rotation has yet to hit its stride this season but few would question it remains the Blue Jays’ biggest strength. How long it stays that way depends entirely on the health of their top four.
The Jays feel good about their chances whenever José Berríos, Chris Bassitt, Yusei Kikuchi and the currently struggling Kevin Gausman take the mound. It’s what happens on the fifth day that continues to be a problem for the second consecutive year.
Bowden Francis has surrendered 12 runs in just 8 ⅓ innings; Mitch White and Paolo Espino are best utilized in long relief; Alek Manoah will start for Buffalo on Saturday and his situation remains as murky as ever; Ricky Tiedemann requires more time in the minors; and there aren’t any other top prospects knocking on the door.
The Jays’ best option might be Yariel Rodriguez, the 27-year-old Cuban who signed a five-year deal during the off-season. Rodriguez, who will be officially added to the roster on Saturday, allowed just one hit in 6 2⁄3 scoreless innings during his brief run in Buffalo.
Rodriguez’s stuff appears to be legit. His fastball is in the mid-90s and typically tops out around 97 m.p.h. He has an impressive slider that sweeps in on right-handed hitters and he complements it with a curveball, a changeup and an occasional splitter. The only problem is that, after not pitching much last season, he’s not ready to handle a starter’s workload.
That means the Jays will have to get creative with their fifth spot. They’ll likely look to combine Francis and Rodriguez in the role, with one piggybacking the other. The strategy might work in the short term but, if a member of the top four goes down, the Jays are going to struggle to find enough quality innings.
Similar things were written last year and the veteran starters stayed healthy. They’re tempting fate by taking a similar risk again without upgrading the lineup to account for diminished results.
Garcia to the rescue
One area where the Jays don’t lack depth is the bullpen. Much was made about springtime injuries to closer Jordan Romano and setup man Erik Swanson, but it wasn’t until the 13th game that their absences were really noticed.
Veteran Yimi Garcia deserves credit for that. After a down season in 2023, the 33-year-old is pitching better than ever. He set a personal best by reaching 99.8 m.p.h. on Wednesday and is averaging a career-best 96.7 on his four-seamer.
Garcia and Chad Green already represent a formidable back end. Once Romano and Swanson are back, the Jays should have at least two high-leverage arms available every night. The remaining task is getting Tim Mayza back on track after he allowed six runs in his first 4⁄ innings.
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Clement’s case
The Jays’ decision to sign Isiah Kiner-Falefa was confusing in December. It’s even more baffling after watching Ernie Clement throughout spring training and the first two weeks of the season.
Kiner-Falefa and Clement aren’t the same player, but they offer similar enough skill sets that they might as well be. Both are above-average defensively at three infield spots and, while Kiner-Falefa has more experience in the outfield, the Jays seem confident Clement is capable there, as well.
The biggest difference is their salaries as Kiner-Falefa is making $7.5 million (U.S.) while Clement earns close to the minimum, approximately $750,000.
The Jays apparently didn’t learn their lesson when they acquired Paul DeJong at last year’s deadline to replace an injured Bo Bichette, only to hand the job to Clement a few weeks later, wasting $2.5 million in the process.
History might repeat itself. KinerFalefa is off to a decent start with a .764 on-base-plus-slugging percentage entering play Friday, but look for Clement to push him for playing time.
Can of corn
Daulton Varsho’s biggest goal this spring was to limit fly balls and increase line drives. There were moments when it appeared the change in approach was working but that success has yet to translate into the season, Friday night’s solo homer excluded.
Varsho is hitting fewer fly balls — 25 per cent versus 31.1 in 2023, entering Friday — but his line-drive rate has also gone down from 21.5 to 17.9. One might assume that’s because he’s putting the ball on the ground more, but that isn’t happening either. It’s a 25 per cent pop-up rate that is the issue.
With Kevin Kiermaier and George Springer also struggling, the Jays aren’t getting much production from their outfield. That calls for Davis Schneider to get more time in left with Varsho and Kiermaier splitting duties in centre until one of them starts producing. For whatever reason, that alignment still isn’t being used often enough.
On the farm
Addison Barger, the Jays’ No. 6 prospect per MLB Pipeline, is off to a blistering start in Buffalo, with a .308 average, a homer and five doubles through 10 games. A promotion isn’t imminent for the 24-yearold but, if the Jays don’t get consistent production out of Kiner-Falefa or Clement, Barger could become an option at third later this summer.
Around the horn
The Jays were hoping for a bounceback season from Alejandro Kirk. Through his first 12 games, he is batting .146 with zero extra-base hits … Springer is having similar struggles. Despite a productive opening series, he entered Friday batting .176 with a .633 OPS … The opposite is true of Cavan Biggio, who has earned his playing time with a .294 average and an .841 OPS.