Clock ticking on lifespan of Line 2 subway
There was certainly no shortage of spending in the federal budget unveiled last week, but one Toronto project in dire need of federal cash wasn’t there. The absence is conspicuous. The potential consequences to service reliability and passenger safety on the TTC are serious.
Put it together, and it’s time to ask the obvious question of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau: Dude, where’s our trains?
Here’s the situation. The trains serving the Line 2 subway that trundles along Bloor Street and Danforth Avenue are getting pretty darn old. Some in the fleet will celebrate their 30th birthday in 2026. That’s young for humans, but elderly for transit infrastructure. By design, hitting the dirty 30 should bring them to retirement age.
The TTC has been trying to replace them, but there’s the not-sosmall matter of the bill. A request for proposals was put out in 2022 to get the 55 new trains needed to serve the line — plus another 25 trains to accommodate future ridership on Line 1 — but was cancelled due to a lack of federal and provincial funding. The latest cost estimate, according to a report to the TTC board, is $3.2 billion.
Premier Doug Ford has since come to the table with a $758-million commitment to help buy the new trains, as part of the new deal secured by Mayor Olivia Chow last fall. But that money is conditional on the federal government providing funding, too. Despite ample opportunity — and a new federal budget that doles out billions for other projects — Trudeau has not done so.
There are two ticking clocks here. One’s about the money. The other’s about safety and reliability.
Financially, even if the TTC can assume Ford’s funding doesn’t come with an expiry date, the reality is that the province’s financial commitment loses buying power every day. The TTC’s current estimate goes up by about $500 million if delivery isn’t secured by the end of 2035. And extra required maintenance on the current fleet will cost millions for each year of further delay.
But the other clock — the safety and reliability clock — is even more serious. These trains hitting age 30 isn’t ideal, but trains of that vintage have been refurbished in the past. It’s doable. But the current fleet, even if refurbished, will not have the technology needed to support a modern signalling system across the line that allows for the trains to be driven automatically, the TTC says. And it makes little sense to install a new signalling system that doesn’t use automatic train control.
Which means a new signal system for Line 2 is being held up by the lack of money for new trains.
That’s a big problem, because the signalling system on Line 2 — critical for making sure trains don’t run too close together — isn’t just getting old. It’s downright ancient.
The oldest part of the signalling system, in operation between Keele Station and Woodbine Station, was installed in 1966. It’s old enough that it helped ferry riders heading out to celebrate the last time the Leafs won the Stanley Cup. It was intended to last 30 years. It’s currently 58 years old, nearly double its planned retirement age, and kept alive only by various refurbishment and rebuild projects over the year.
The age means parts for maintenance have to be engineered and tested in-house. No manufacturer still makes components. And modern diagnostics are simply not part of the design. That’s a reality that results in “increased troubleshooting time due to the lack of data to pinpoint the root cause of malfunctioning system,” a report to the TTC board released this month says.
It continues: “This will result in higher operating and maintenance costs, and could result in a drop off in performance of the subway line through delays and line closures.”
That’s a worrying acknowledgment that the delay in getting new trains and replacing the signalling system will cause delays for TTC riders, as any problems will take longer to fix.
It’s extra worrisome because it sounds a lot like what reports were saying about the aging Scarborough RT system before it derailed last year and was hastily taken out of service.
And the stakes are a lot higher. Line 2 is used by far more people: about 400,000 a day. That’s about 18 times higher than average weekday ridership of the RT before it shut down.
With that many people at risk of dealing with major service impacts, it is baffling that the new trains aren’t already on order. Nearly all the ingredients are there. The TTC is ready to accept bids. Mayor Olivia Chow has already identified it as a priority. Provincial money is on the table.
All that’s missing is a federal government that recognizes their role in making sure things don’t go off the rails.