Martinez better off in Buffalo
The Blue Jays suffer from a noticeable lack of power at the big-league level. But down on the farm, the home runs are coming in bunches thanks to a blistering start from Orelvis Martinez.
Martinez has been one of the biggest early-season breakouts in the minor leagues. The 22-year-old infielder will enter Tuesday’s series opener against Iowa riding a 15game hitting streak with six home runs over his last eight games for Triple-A Buffalo. Since April 2, he’s batting .361 (22-for-61).
That level of production is in stark contrast to what the Jays have been getting in the big leagues. They arrived in Kansas City for Monday night’s opener of a three-game series ranked 21st with 0.91 home runs per game, and 19th with an equally mediocre .695 on-base plus slugging percentage.
When the Jays score five or more runs, they are 9-1. When they don’t, they’re 3-9. Which suggests the only thing that has stopped this good team from becoming great is the lack of consistent offence.
So, the team that’s missing a big bat has one stashed in the minors just waiting to be deployed. It seems like there’s an obvious solution here, right?
If only things were that easy. There are legitimate reasons to consider promoting Martinez, but even more that suggest leaving him right where he is would be the more prudent choice.
The biggest issue the Jays have right now is almost no production out of the top of the lineup: George Springer, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette combined for just 0.3 wins above replacement through 22 games.
Promoting Martinez doesn’t solve that, because the top three aren’t going anywhere. Instead, he’s an option at second base and designated hitter, two spots where the Jays are well covered.
Justin Turner, who starts almost exclusively at DH, has been the club’s best hitter with a .308 average, nine extra-base hits and a team-leading 11 RBIs through Sunday. At second, the Jays are hitting .333 with a .927 OPS. Only the Houston Astros and all-star José Altuve are higher at .999.
Second base hasn’t been an issue, and third base doesn’t seem realistic. Martinez has played the position before, but not in 2024. That’s a strong indicator the Jays prefer him at second with fellow prospect Addison Barger (.314, three homers, 21 RBIs) the backup option at third.
The problem both prospects face is that the Jays have a surplus of infielders. They have used four players at both second and third base this season and nobody has performed poorly enough to lose their job. If anything, each guy has made the case for additional atbats.
The Jays remain committed to Isiah Kiner-Falefa after handing him a two-year contract worth $15 million (U.S.). Cavan Biggio is off to a decent start with a .762 OPS that ranks third among Jays with at least 50 at-bats. Davis Schneider and Ernie Clement deserve more playing time, not less.
There just isn’t any room for Martinez, and that’s OK because there’s no need to rush. At age 22, he’s among the youngest players in the International League. There is work to do defensively, and despite the recent hot streak there are still holes in his swing that big-league pitchers will exploit.
Martinez deserves credit for forcing the conversation this early in the season. As a teenager, just about every major outlet had him ranked inside the top 100 prospects. By 2023, he had fallen off the lists entirely as he struggled to make contact and on defence.
He slugged 30 home runs in his age-20 season at Double-A New Hampshire, but also hit just .203 while striking out 140 times. The results were similar the following season with 17 homers in 70 games for New Hampshire while batting a meagre .226. The power was tantalizing, and yet the swing-and-miss issues figured to only get worse as the pitching improved.
The turnaround began with last year’s promotion to Buffalo, where Martinez hit .263 with an .847 OPS. This season, he has taken it to another level by batting .333 with six homers, 18 RBIs and a 1.073 OPS through 18 games.
The resumé is starting to look impressive, but there are at least a couple of guys ahead of him for any job opening. If a starter gets hurt or starts to struggle, Clement and Schneider will be first in line to pick up additional at-bats.
Once those options are exhausted, there will be an opportunity to look to Buffalo for help. In the meantime, Martinez should be left alone to focus on development away from the bright lights.
Patience, Jays fans. Martinez’s time is coming, but it hasn’t arrived just yet, even though the numbers in Buffalo may lead you to believe otherwise.