Things could get spicy as Tories and Liberals scrap over new ridings

GTA gets new seats, but redrawn lines create showdowns

It’s something every federal party knows: the GTA is one of the most seat-rich parts of Canada, and if you win it, you might just win the election, too.

It’s also a region campaign strategists are scrutinizing closely after a years-long effort to redraw Canada’s riding boundaries officially came into effect this week.

The process typically happens every 10 years to ensure Canada’s changing population still has proper representation in Parliament. And it can be a tedious and messy business that involves dissolving, creating and merging ridings.

Already, some MPs have said they won’t seek re-election for reasons like no longer living in their newly drawn riding, their new riding’s sprawling size, or their riding vanishing altogether. Other incumbents will see their ridings absorb rival territory, or force them to face off against their caucus colleagues.

Overall, Canada is growing from 338 electoral districts to 343. But the shifting lines within that map can have a real impact on election results. Elections Canada estimates that if the 2021 federal election were held with the new boundaries, the Liberals would have three fewer seats and the Conservatives would gain seven.

The GTA is picking up several new seats, and while many ridings are undergoing few to no changes, there are a handful where the state of play could get spicy. Here are some of the biggest changes, and where key faceoffs could unfold.

Brampton

The biggest change occurs in Brampton North, which will be split in half when the next election is called. Its eastern half joins the new riding of Brampton—Chinguacousy Park (formerly part of Brampton Centre). Its western half will now include part of Dufferin-Caledon to become Brampton North—Caledon.

That latter riding could be one to watch. Brampton North is currently held by the Liberals’ Ruby Sahota, who has represented the riding since it came into effect in 2015.

But the portion of Dufferin-Caledon being added to the newly drawn riding is Conservative territory — and has been for 20 years.

Making the situation more precarious for the Liberals is how Sahota’s riding used to belong to three other Brampton ridings, all of which were held by Conservatives before the 2015 election.

Sahota did not respond to the Star’s questions about where she would seek re-election should she run again. But it’s worth noting that the proposed boundaries she submitted to the Ontario commission responsible for the province’s changes excluded that slice of Dufferin-Caledon entirely.

Don Valley

Perhaps the biggest change hitting this region is the eradication of Don Valley East, which has flipped between the Liberals and Conservatives for more than 40 years. The Liberals have maintained their hold on the riding since 2015, with former Ontario Liberal cabinet minister Michael Coteau currently serving as MP.

The riding has now been absorbed into three others: an expanded Don Valley North gets a corner, while its western half is now part of Don Valley West and its eastern half becomes the newly formed Scarborough Centre—Don Valley East.

The change means Liberal MP Salma Zahid’s Scarborough Centre riding has also undergone major changes, joining with Don Valley East and merging into the newly struck Scarborough-Woburn to its east.

Zahid has opposed some of the changes, while Coteau has strongly protested the elimination of his riding due to concerns over the commission’s process and impacts on newcomers to Canada.

The current state of affairs means Liberal incumbents in the region — should they choose to run again — may need to battle it out on overlapping turf to determine whose name appears on the ballot.

Durham Region

The riding of former Conservative Leader Erin O’Toole is undergoing a seismic shift of its own, as Durham is set to be dissolved into two new ridings: York-Durham for its northern half and Bowmanville— Oshawa North for its southern half.

A March byelection handed the seat to the Conservatives’ Jamil Jivani, who did not respond to the Star’s queries about where he would run next.

Of the two new ridings, York-Durham is of particular interest. The sizable electoral district now includes parts of the Tory-held York-Simcoe (which no longer exists) and Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock.

But it now contains Liberal ground: about half of MarkhamStouffville and two-thirds of Pickering-Uxbridge. The Liberals have previously posted healthy leads in the former riding, but its incumbent, Helena Jaczek, has announced she will not be running for re-election. Pickering-Uxbridge, meanwhile, is a riding many Conservative hopefuls have eyed.

It all means the stage could be set for one of the GTA’s biggest bluered showdowns.

Oakville

Over in Oakville, home to the Liberals’ Anita Anand, the riding is being merged with Oakville North—Burlington and then undergoing a vertical split into two districts: Oakville West and Oakville East.

Anand, who in 2021 beat the Conservatives by fewer than 4,000 votes, confirmed to the Star that she intends to run in Oakville East, where the Conservatives could put up strong contenders.

Former police officer Ron Chhinzer has mounted a bid to run for the Conservatives in that riding, and businesswoman Kerry Colborne, who ran against Anand in the last election, hopes to do so again.

Colborne told the Star the riding split doesn’t hurt anyone’s chances because the region has been known to change hands.

That’s a sentiment shared by Oakville North—Burlington’s Pam Damoff, a Liberal MP who said Halton region tends to serve as a bellwether for the overall election result.

Milton

Just above the two new Oakville ridings are two new electoral districts in Milton.

The singular riding of Milton, held by Liberal MP and former Olympic gold medallist Adam van Koeverden, has undergone its own divide, becoming Burlington North—Milton West and Milton East—Halton Hills South.

That second riding now includes a chunk of Wellington—Halton Hills (now Wellington—Halton Hills North), a Conservative riding held by veteran MP Michael Chong.

The shift could revert that half of Milton back to blue, portions of which longtime Conservative MP Lisa Raitt represented for just over a decade. Former Ontario MPP Parm Gill left Premier Doug Ford’s cabinet this year to run for Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives, and is expected to aim for Milton East—Halton Hills South.

Van Koeverden told the Star he plans to seek re-election in Burlington North—Milton West, where he said he lives and feels a “stronger sense of connection.”