Marner deal is no slam dunk
Fans hoping for Leafs’ version of DeRozan trade are in for disappointment
So apparently the Maple Leafs should make a DeMar DeRozan trade. Everybody knows that, because you seem to hear it everywhere. Trading DeRozan for Kawhi Leonard brought the Raptors a championship in 2019 and it was one of the best trades in NBA history, and that’s what the poor doomed, cursed, battered, bedraggled Leafs should do, apparently. Easy.
Who is the DeRozan in this scenario? Well, that apparently is Mitch Marner, whose playoff performances have faded at times as the year-over-year pressure has accumulated. He has gone from light and joyful to heavy and hesitant. It was Auston Matthews who said Monday that this market demands a scapegoat, and Marner — three points in seven games as part of a line with John Tavares against the most dangerous Bruins line — appears to be at the head of the list player-wise. William Nylander has eight years left, Matthews has four, Morgan Rielly has five, Tavares will play out the final year of his contract, and Marner is extension eligible this summer. He’s the obvious odd man out if you’re making a core change.
So, just trade him the way the playoff-limited Raptors traded the beloved DeRozan, right? Get a Kawhi back. Get on it, Brad Treliving.
Is this the bargaining stage of grief? Is it hand-waving wishcasting? Is it comparing apples and, say, blackberry bushes? Yes.
Look, it’s beyond obvious that this Leafs core hasn’t delivered. Eight playoff seasons, one series win, after which the good vibes lasted between two and three games before the abyss opened up again. This loss was messier, with injuries and absences abounding, but the end result was David Pastrnak streaking past five half-frozen Leafs in OT. It felt like an ending of more than a playoff series, but then so did last year.
But there isn’t an obvious shortcut to true contention here. One, who’s your Kawhi? Even ignoring the difference between superstar impact in basketball vs. hockey, it’s unlikely there is a truly great player available for sale, even with Marner as hypothetical bait. Kawhi was a bigger risk than people remember, but he was a top-five player when healthy; the Leafs already have one of those.
And the reason the Raptors could nab Kawhi for a fringe all-star, a young centre in Jakob Poeltl and a first-round pick was that Kawhi’s relationship with the San Antonio Spurs had fractured over treatment of his degenerative quad — he wanted out. Kawhi’s knee and quad were enough of a concern that there was doubt within the Raptors organization about the move, but he was the definition of a high-upside distressed asset.
Uh, that’s Marner. He’s seventh in regular-season scoring since 2020. He was close to a point-per-game playoff performer until this year. He had 22 points in the 19 postseason games in 2022 and 2023 (with some down moments, to be sure) before this Boston series. He had a down season overall this year, sure. But Marner is a borderline Selke candidate, a penalty killer, a two-time all-NHL winger and he’s 27. You can’t say he’s never truly delivered in the playoffs. And even this year, we don't know how much the high ankle sprain he suffered in March mattered in May.
But his relationship with the fan base has been damaged. And he is the ninth-highest-paid player in the NHL.
So maybe you’re using a DeRozan deal as shorthand for a trade that magically adds the pieces you need to go from a playoff also-ran into a title team. Sure. So what does that look like? A monster defenceman, young third-line centre and some cap space? A Mikhail Sergachev in Tampa, or a Clayton Keller in Utah? What the Leafs need is someone who can deliver in the biggest moments. But even if the pressure of Toronto isn't a factor in his relative struggles, Marner is far more likely to be the best player in a deal than not.
And above all, the Leafs are only partly in control. When the relationship between team president Brendan Shanahan and general manager Kyle Dubas blew up so close to free agency last season, the Leafs lost most of their window to decide on a Core Four trade before the no-moves and trade protection kicked in. Now Marner can reject any trade, and can be a free agent in a year. The only way to move him for value may be a war.
Maybe the criticism is wearing Marner down; there may be no Leafs player who is more attuned to the noise outside the walls. And the fan base is fed up.
Still, Marner wasn’t wrong when he said on exit day that “we’re looked upon as gods here, to be honest.” But there is no deus ex machina here, only hard decisions and limited options in a franchise increasingly splintered by years of losing. Kawhi isn’t walking through that door, even if someone may be walking out.