Tokyo Bound: Olympic and Paralympic Preview
OLYMPIC AND PARALYMPIC PREVIEW
Let the games begin! Qualifying for the 2020 Olympic Games triathlon began in May 2018. We preview the Tokyo races – a look at our Canadian hopefuls, international stars and the exciting debut of team triathlon.
Canadians happily remember the magical moment when Simon Whitfield pulled away from Germany’s Stephan
Vuckovic to charge to Olympic gold in the inaugural appearance of the sport at the 2000 Olympic Games in Sydney, Australia. The addition of the sport to the Olympics has certainly increased triathlon’s profile over the years and the addition of the mixed team relay to next year’s program can only add to the excitement.
Believe it or not, it’s probably a good thing that, as this issue goes to print, there isn’t a Canadian heading into the Olympic Games who would be considered an odds-on favourite to medal at next year’s Games in Tokyo. Don’t get us wrong – here at Triathlon Magazine Canada we’re going to be biasedly rooting for the likes of Tyler Mislawchuk and Joanna Brown to be gunning for gold on July 27 (men’s race) and July 28 (women’s), not to mention the Canadian relay team (August 1), but historically here in Canada we’ve done a great job of hyping our medal favourites to death in the year or two before the Games.
Heading into the 2004 games in Athens the hype machine around Whitfield was insane. He would finish 11th in those Games, then
took the silver in Beijing in 2008. He carried the flag at the 2012 Games in London, only to break his collar bone in a crash early on the bike and have to pull out of the race.
All the hype around Whitfield heading into those games almost paled in comparison to that heaped upon Paula Findlay. Years out from the London games the Globe and Mail printed a front page story about the young
Albertan’s chances at the Games. Injured, she struggled across the line in last place.
The same can’t be said for the Paratriatlon. 2016 Paralympic silver medalist in the PTS5 division, Calgary’s Stefan Daniel, has been steadily improving since Rio and took the Grand Final in 2017 and 2018 (to go along with his 2015 title). Daniel started the year off with a win at the CAMTRI Paratriathlon
American Championships in Sarasota, Fla., and is certainly doing all the right things as he builds towards Rio.
In the interests of being excited, but not piling on too much pressure, we’ll do our best to temper out enthusiasm for next year’s Canadian contingent heading to Tokyo.
Who are we trying to kid. Let the games begin – go Canada go!
DISTANCES
Despite talk that the Olympic format might change to the sprint distance in Tokyo, the 2020 event will be contended over the “Olympic” or standard-distance, a 1.5 km swim, 40 km bike and 10 km run.
The mixed team relay will consist of four legs consisting of a 300 m swim, a 7.4 km bike ride and a 2 km run. The first leg and third legs will be completed by a woman, the second and fourth by a man.
The Paratriathlon race is contested over the sprint distance – a 750 m swim, 20 km bike and a 5 km run.
QUALIFYING
Qualifying for the Tokyo games began in May 2018. There will be a total of 110 athletes competing in triathlon – 55 men and 55 women. All of those will compete in the individual race and at least 64 (16 teams) will compete in the mixed team relay.
Two of the 55 spots are given to the host country, Japan, while two others go to athletes from developing nations (these are called tripartite invitations). That leaves 51 spots to divvy out, which is done through qualification based on the ITU’s Olympic ranking system. Athletes can earn points at world cup and world triathlon series (WTS) events. The top 26 athletes in the ranking qualify their country for a spot – each triathlon governing body decides who will represent the country. Each country can qualify a maximum of three athletes per gender – powerhouse nations like Great Britain (potentially men and women), United States (women) and Spain (men) are sure to qualify at least three athletes in the top 26, making just getting a spot on the team a challenge for those nations.
After those 26 spots are determined, there are five spots available for the highest-ranked country that didn’t have a qualifier in the top 26. There’s only one spot per region. (For us in Canada, our “region” consists of both North and South America.)
The rest of the spots (we should be down to 20) are handed out based on the mixed team relay. The top seven teams in the mixed team relay standings will qualify two men and two women each. The last six spots will go to the top three relay teams at a race to be held next year – the top three teams that aren’t in the top seven of the rankings will earn themselves a trip to Tokyo.
Got it? Yeah, we’re not sure we do, either.
“After his first world cup victory in Australia, Tyler Mislawchuk has moved himself to 5th in the ITU Olympic ranking, putting him in good shape when it comes to nailing a Tokyo spot.”
CANADIANS
After his first world cup victory in Australia (see News, p.54), Tyler Mislawchuk has moved himself to fifth in the ITU Olympic ranking as we go to print, putting him in good shape when it comes to nailing a Tokyo spot. (Yes, we know that Triathlon Canada gets to name the athlete, it’s not Mislawchuk’s “spot,” but unless he’s injured it seems crazy that he wouldn’t be our top pick.) Matthew Sharpe currently sits 31st in the ranking, which would give him a relatively good chance to make the games as an individual.
Joanna Brown currently sits at 29 in the women’s Olympic standings, with relay team mate Desirae Ridenour at 129. Ridenour was still a junior last year, so she’s yet to race a standard-distance event, which would earn considerably more points towards her Olympic ranking. She’s more likely to qualify for the games as part of the relay squad – she’s been a mainstay on the relay for the last year.
Canada currently sits at 11th in the relay ranking, but has routinely finished amongst the top seven in the ITU World Mixed Relay Series events, so one would expect that ranking to improve as we head into more relay qualifiers.
Qualifying three athletes in either the men’s or women’s field appears to be a long shot for the Canadian team, but a relay spot seems to be very realistic. Barring anything crazy happening over the next year, Canada should suit up two men and two women in Tokyo.
MIXED TEAM RELAY
The inaugural relay race at the games promises to be a barn burner. With traditional power houses like Australia, the United States and Great Britain all likely to be after Olympic glory, it’s worth noting that France dominated last years ITU Mixed Team Relay World Championship in Hamburg.
PARATRIATHLON
We promised to temper our enthusiasm, right? That said, whether Stefan Daniel likes it or not, he’s likely to head into the Paralympics in Tokyo as the prohibitive favourite in the men’s PTS5 division. Jon Dunkerly currently sits in ninth in the men’s visually impaired rankings.
For the women. Lyne-Marie Bilodeau sits at 10th in the PTS2 category, Kamylle Frenette is ranked sixth in PTS5 and Jessica Tuomela is ranked fourth in the visually impaired category.
WOMEN'S CONTENDERS
With 2016 Olympic champion Gwen Jorgensen seeking a spot on the American marathon team, we’re not going to see her attempt an Olympic defense in Tokyo. For a few years after Rio it looked like Bermuda’s Flora Duffy had figured out the winning formula when it came to ITU racing, but she’s been injured since her Commonwealth Games win last year, making her a wild card in our over-a-year-before prognostication. Safer bets might rest in the likes of American Katie Zaferes, winner of the first WTS race of the 2019 season in Abu Dhabi, or last year’s ITU world champ, Great Britain’s Vicky Holland, the bronze medalist in Rio.
The beauty of the Olympics, though, is that consistency means absolutely nothing on race day. It doesn’t matter if you’re regularly at the front – being “on” for this one day is more
than enough. Anyone who saw Cassandre Beaugrand float away from her competition at WTS Hamburg last year will be happy to add the Frenchwoman to the list of Olympic contenders. Ditto for Australia’s Ashleigh Gentle, who managed to outkick Holland to take the Grand Final last year.
Just making the American team promises to be a feat for Tokyo. There are six Americans sitting in the top 14 of the ITU Olympic rankings at this point – in addition to top-ranked Zaferes there’s Taylor Spivey (third), Summer Rappaport (10th), Taylor Knibb (11th), Chelsea Burns (12th) and Kirsten Kasper (14th). It’s likely to be every bit as competitive for the U.K. Holland sits second in the ranking, but she’s joined by three other women in the top eight – Georgia Taylor-Brown (fourth), Jessica Learmonth (sixth) and Jodie Stimpson (eighth), with the fourth-place finisher in Rio, Non Stanford, sitting at 15th.
We’re happy to add Brown’s name to the mix – the Carp, Ont. native has enjoyed numerous top WTS finishes over the last year to go along with her bronze medal at the Commonwealth Games last year. Others who are likely to be in the mix in Tokyo include Germany’s Laura Lindemann and possibly 2012 gold medalist and 2016 silver medalist Nicola Spirig – who knows what she might be capable of.
“Whether Stefan Daniel likes it or not, he’s likely to head into the Paralympics in Tokyo as the prohibitive favourite in the men’s PTS5 division.”
MEN'S CONTENDERS
While Spain’s Mario Mola has won the last three ITU world championships, there’s more talk about some of the contenders who we’ve seen very little of in standardand sprint-distance racing over the last few years when it comes to Tokyo predictions. Great Britain’s Alistair Brownlee, the 2012 and 2016 gold medalist, has been flirting with middle-distance racing over the last few years. He’s left the door open, though, for a run at Tokyo, so we shouldn’t be surprised to see him at some qualifying events over the next year. Jonathan Brownlee, the 2012 bronze and 2016 silver medalist, has stuck to short-distance racing and will likely be one to watch in Tokyo provided he remains healthy over the next year.
Another Spaniard that many people expect to be a factor in Tokyo is Javier Gomez. The 2012 silver medalist had to miss Rio because of a broken elbow sustained just weeks before the games. Like Brownlee, Gomez has been playing with long-distance racing as well over the last few years, taking his second Ironman 70.3 world title in 2017 in Chattanooga, finishing third at the 70.3 worlds in South Africa last year and making his Ironman World Championship debut last year, finishing 11th. While Gomez appears intent on going after another 70.3 championship in Nice this year, he’s also made it clear his sights are set on the Games in Tokyo.
When it comes to being at the top of his game for one day, France’s Vincent Luis seems to be dialing things in over the last few years. He’s won the last two ITU Grand Finals and dominated the Super League series events last fall and winter. Rio bronze medalist Henri Schoeman took last year’s Commonwealth Games, proving he, too, can come up big when it counts.
We’ll happily throw Tyler Mislawchuk’s name into the mix. He learned the Olympic ropes with his 15th place finish in Rio and appears ready to play with the big boys in Tokyo. Norway’s Kristian Blummenfelt can also come up big on some days, so he’s certainly one to watch, too.
One man many will be talking about over the next year is another athlete from Great Britain, Alex Yee. Just 20 years old, Yee is a worldclass runner and finished second to Mola at the first WTS race of 2019 in Abu Dhabi.
Spain’s men’s team promises to dominate the men’s standings – they have four athletes in the top-19 including Mola (first), Fernando Alarza (sixth), Antonio Serrat Seoane (15th) and Vicente Hernandez (19th), with Gomez likely to rocket up the rankings once he starts racing more WTS events, too.
"SPAIN'S MEN'S TEAM PROMISES TO DOMINATE THE MEN'S STANDINGS - THEY HAVE FOUR ATHLETES IN THE TOP-19, INCLUDING MOLA IN 1ST."