CHECKING THE ODDS 2022 IRONMAN WORLD CHAMPIONSHIP ST. GEORGE SEEDINGS
The data from previous Ironman World Championships indicates that the number of potential winners is quite small: In almost all cases the winner has been in the top four in the previous race. There are a few exceptions for previous winners, but usually only going two or three years back. Rookies are almost never able to win in their first world championship, the last winners on debut were Luc Van Lierde (1996) and Chrissie Wellington (2007). Of course, this data is based on the race in Kona, but it is fair to assume that it will also apply to the world championship in St. George. Men’s Race
The dynamics of the men’s world championship race are probably going to be quite similar regardless of the course. In Kona 2019 a group of athletes were able to get away in the swim. While the group was getting smaller and smaller, the chasers were not able to close the gap, and the first three athletes into T2 were from this lead group. Jan Frodeno had already built a small gap in the final part of the bike, and he was able to extend that on the run. The second-place finisher—Tim O’Donnell—was also part of the lead group, third (Sebastian Kienle) and fourth place (Ben Hoffman) came from a bit further behind. If we use that as a baseline, the most likely scenario is that the winner of the race will come from the first swim group. There may be a chance to snatch a podium spot coming from behind, but there are likely going to be too many strong bikers and runners in the front group to contend for the win.
Top Favourites • Frodeno (2 to 1) • Blummenfelt (5 to 1) • Iden (5 to 1)
The defending Champion is almost always the obvious first choice to win the race. There can be very little doubt that Germany’s Jan Frodeno will be starting the race as the main favourite. In 2021, he only raced four times, but was able to show
a great performance (and win) in each of them. His only full-distance race was the self-organized “Tri Battle” in July where he posted a 7:27, at that point the fastest time ever for the full distance. The main doubt why he might struggle to defend his title is his age: He will be 40 years old for the race in St. George—and so far the oldest Ironman World Championship winners won when they were 38 years old (Craig Alexander and Natascha Badmann). But that might be just the next record Jan is chasing.
After his gold medal in Tokyo and his impressive Ironman debut (7:21 at IM Cozumel), Norway’s Kristian Blummenfelt has to be considered as a top contender even if he is a rookie at the Ironman World Championship. He should be able to stay in the front swim and bike group, and with his 2:35 marathon in Cozumel he is also a viable threat to Frodeno on the run.
Blummenfelt’s countryman, reigning two-time Ironman 70.3 Champion Gustav Iden, has shown he can perform in the big races. At his debut Ironman in Florida he posted a 2:34 marathon, currently considered the fastest run split in a legitimatedistance Ironman. Compared to Blummenfelt, he is a weaker swimmer, so he could struggle to stay in the front group and might have to invest some extra energy early in the race, which could hurt him towards the end.
Even though both Blummenfelt and Iden are rookies at the Ironman World Championship, they might be able to influence Frodeno’s tactics and put pressure on him. In his Kona wins, Frodeno was able to build a decent lead by the mid-point of the run—the Norwegians will do their best to not let the German get away, and maybe one of them will even be able to run away from the defending champion.
Men: Long(er) Shots • Lange (9 to 1) • Brownlee (12 to 1) • Nilsson (25 to 1) • Angert (25 to 1) • Baekkegard (25 to 1)
There are a few more men who have already had great results and who can be expected to be part of the first swim group. Among these, Germany’s Patrick Lange has won twice in Kona before (2017/18). The 2019 season was a disappointment for him, but since then he got married, moved to Austria and switched coaches, leading to great results in 2021 (wins at Ironman Tulsa and Challenge Roth). He might be a bit under the radar for most of the race, but with his run strength (he still holds the Kona run course record and is the only one with a sub-2:40 run on the Big Island), his chances will increase the longer he is able to hold on to the front group. Great Britain’s Alistair Brownlee was part of the Kona 2019 front group, but then struggled to run well. He missed qualifying for Tokyo 2021 and then needed ankle surgery. He will surely aim to be the wildcard in the mix.
Sweden’s Patrik Nilsson is either going to be very good—or a complete bust. On a good day, he can swim, bike and run with the best, maybe even with the very best. Germany’s Florian Angert and Denmark’s Daniel Baekkegard are two younger athletes who swim and bike very well. Usually experience on the biggest stages of our sport is required to make the right move at the right time, but even if they end up making a mistake and fall out of the group at some point, they may influence the dynamics of the race, maybe by forcing the pace early on and breaking up the front group, or by closing a gap and helping one of the top favourites save some valuable energy.
Men: Slower Swimmers • Hoffman, Kienle, Sanders and Skipper (all around 50 to 1)
Ben Hoffman, Sebastian Kienle, Lionel Sanders and Joe Skipper are usually three or four minutes behind after the swim in Kona. When there is a strong front group willing to stay away, this requires them to work extra hard in order to bridge up to the front group—very hard to do while leaving enough in the tank for a strong marathon. A smart race execution could still see them contend for the podium, but if they want to contend for the win the gap to the front in T1 needs to be much smaller. It seems unlikely that they make a big leap in their swim after working on it for years and years already—but then you always must do something special to become a world champion.
Women’s Race
It’s clear that Lucy Charles-Barclay will be leading the females for a long time, and she’ll probably have very little company for most of the day. The gap to the first big group should be about five minutes at the start of the bike. Will Charles-Barclay be able to even increase that lead on the bike or will the chase group make up time to her? That group usually stays together for most of the bike leg—will Daniela Ryf be able to ride away? And will anyone from the slightly slower swimmers such as Laura Philipp be able to bridge up to the big bike group? It’s unlikely that anyone finishing the bike behind the chase group will be able to contend for the St. George title.
By T2 the main question will be how fast Charles-Barclay is going to run the marathon and what gap she needs to the fastest runners in the chase group. Based on previous results, Anne Haug might put ten minutes into Charles-Barclay on the run. If all the top four from Kona 2019 and 2014–18 champion Daniela Ryf race as expected, we could have a T2-situation where the race will be decided late in the run.
• Haug (2 to 1) • Charles-Barclay (3 to 1) • Ryf (3 to 1)
As mentioned above, Great Britain’s Lucy Charles-Barclay will be leading the female race from the gun. She has been first out of the water in all her half- and full-distance races and that won’t change in St. George. In Kona, she was either caught by Switzerland’s Daniela Ryf towards the end of the bike (2017 and 18) or by Germany’s Anne Haug at mile 16 on the run (2019). Her 2021 season, especially her win at Ironman 70.3 World Championship (which was also in St. George), showed solid improvements on the bike and run. She hasn’t done a full-distance race since Kona 2019, but with a similar development to last year she may very well be able to lead wire-to-wire and win her first full-distance Ironman World Championship title.
The 2021 season was a rollercoaster for Anne Haug. She got a Corona infection right before starting Challenge Miami in March, then struggled to return to full fitness. The problem was diagnosed as diabetes triggered by Corona, so coming up with a proper training and racing plan wasn’t easy. She didn’t feel too good going into Challenge Roth, but had one of those magic days where she was able to push all day, winning by more than 30 minutes. If she’s racing at a similar level, we could see a repeat of Kona 2019: a solid swim in the first chase group, an active role on the bike to keep the pace honest, followed by a fast marathon. If she’s on form, it’ll require something special from her competition to keep her from defending her title.
Again and again, we’ve seen Daniela Ryf show something special in her races. Then she struggled in her last two championship races in Kona 2019 and St. George 2021. Is she only as good as her last races or can she re-capture the magic of her four Kona wins and five 70.3 titles? An important part of that magic was her bike strength—she always made up any gap after the swim and was able to take the lead on the bike, having pretty much secured the win by the time she started the marathon. Even if her run is probably a bit underrated, she hasn’t run as fast as Haug, so she will need to assert her position on the bike, ideally by riding away from the chase group. It’ll be very interesting to see the gaps to Charles-Barclay and the chase group after the Snow Canyon climb—by then we’ll have a better idea if the old Ryf is back.
• Philipp (17 to 1) • Crowley (24 to 1) • Matthews (32 to 1) • Moench (32 to 1) • Jackson (32 to 1)
One of the few women who may be able to out-run Haug in St. George is her countrywoman Laura Philipp. She was fourth in Kona in 2019 thanks to a 3:02 marathon after very limited run training. She won both her 2021 Iroman races with a 2:52 marathon in Finland and a 2:44 in Austria. Her weak leg continues to be the swim, but with continued progress in the water she should be well placed to join the chase group by the middle of the bike, and then keep up the pressure on the others in the group. We’ve rarely seen two strong runners fight for the world championship title—maybe the last time was Kona 2010 when Chris McCormack won with a 2:43 marathon over Andreas Raelert, who ran a 2:44.
Having finished third in Kona 2019 after a run duel with Charles-Barclay, Australia’s Sarah Crowley is on the short list of statistical contenders for the win. However, she struggled with injuries in her 2020 and 2021 seasons and hasn’t been able to race at her usual level. Hopefully, a long training period in Australia will help her to race St. George in good form. For her that would mean a swim and bike ride in the chase group. Ideally, she’ll be able to stay with Ryf when she rides away from the group. When some of the other contenders don’t have a good day and if she runs a new marathon best, she may be able to fight for the win.
Great Britain’s Kat Matthews, along with Americans Skye Moench and Heather Jackson are probably going to be too far behind after the swim to be able to be able to bridge up to the chase group. Nonetheless, a smart race plan could make all of them solid podium contenders. Matthews has been impressive on the run (2:49 in Tulsa) and solid on the bike. Moench (8:34 in Chattanooga) and Jackson (8:52 in Florida) won two Ironman races at the end of 2021 with fast times. Both will look to repeat or maybe improve the best recent placing by a U.S. female—a third place by Jackson in Kona 2016.