Why the Warriors will win

There is a way to beat Golden State.

It demands defence.

Let the Warriors shoot 50 per cent, they’re almost certainly going to win. Let the Warriors score 103 points, they’re almost certainly going to win. It’s really that simple. To use LeBron James’ word, they are a juggernaut. And that juggernaut will require the Cleveland Cavaliers to play airtight defence in these NBA Finals.

Defence has been the question for the Cavaliers all season.

That is why Golden State is my pick to win the NBA championship.

For the record, I picked Cleveland at the start of the season primarily for two reasons. One, James is the best player alive and his entire motivation now seems to revolve around collecting more rings. Two, I wasn’t convinced that adding Kevin Durant to the Warriors’ loaded mix would be as seamless as Golden State has made it look.

James has probably never been better than he is now.

But with Durant, the Warriors have probably never been better than this either.

Let’s get back to those numbers. When the Warriors score 103 this season, they’re 78-6. When they score 102 or less, they’re 1-9. (That ratio also holds true going back to last year’s Finals, Golden State going 3-0 when scoring 103 or more, 0-4 otherwise.) And the last time that the Warriors shot better than 50 per cent and lost was in November - that is, November 2014.

When shooting over 50 per cent, they’ve won 106 consecutive games, the last 43 of those coming this season. The argument from CavsTwitter upon hearing those numbers will likely revolve around how Cleveland has clamped down on Golden State in each of the past two Finals, and that take is accurate. Golden State shot 44 per cent against the Cavs in the 2015 Finals, 43 per cent last season. Clearly, Cleveland understands what it takes to frustrate the Warriors just enough.

Except those Warriors aren’t these Warriors.

And even though Cleveland has rolled through the playoffs, going 12-1, they’ve allowed opponents over 100 points in all but three of those games.

Durant is the difference. Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson and Draymond Green were daunting enough with Harrison Barnes. Now with Durant in that mix in what essentially was Barnes’ spot, the Warriors have found different dimensions both offensively and defensively.

James will push Golden State to the limit. But in the end, the 2016 loss will be avenged and the championship confetti will finally fall on Durant.

Warriors in seven.