Don’t worry about a bust — watch out for boom

Looming shortage of skilled labour means it’s time for businesses to invest in improving productivity of workers

With all the economic uncertainty these days — Europe in recession, governments and households up to their ears in debt both here and abroad, international financial institutions on thin ice, growth stalling everywhere, governments cutting back — what do you think is top- of- mind for Canadian businesses?

“If you look a little beyond the short- term risks, the big challenge is that in three to five years Canada will have such a hot economy we won’t be able to find enough people,” says Jayson Myers, president of the Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters Association.

The demographic reality of a shrinking workforce is nothing new. But the optimism about the economy and its corollary — that Canada will need workers to not only replace the skills of retiring baby boomers, but also to move forward on a whole bunch of fronts — is unusual these days. But Myers makes an interesting case.

“A skills shortage will be particularly a problem for the private sector and all the capital projects we’ll see, not just here in B. C., but across the country,“he said.

“You’ve got major investment in restructuring in forestry. You’ve got Rio Tinto’s refinery in Kitimat. You’ve got Site C [ hydro electricity] that is probably going to go ahead. You’ve got public infrastructure expansion in Prince Rupert. And shipbuilding. And pipelines.

“That’s matched in every province. There are mining projects, resource projects. The oilsands are having a huge impact on B. C. already, not only in opportunities but in challenges for skills.”

Myers’s organization has done a recent survey of capital projects and came up with $ 85 billion worth last year — an impressive total, especially for tough times. And, based on what member companies tell the CMEA, that is expected to double by 2015.

In B. C. terms, “the [$ 8- billion federal] shipbuilding contract, as important as it is, is a drop in the bucket in terms of the money that’s going to be spent.”

Businesses are already having trouble finding the workers they need, he said, and most aren’t ready for the much larger challenge ahead.

“We’ve got an aging workforce, and that creates skill shortages all on its own. But the demand for tradespeople, engineers, technicians to work on these capital projects, and then all the supply base to support them — that’s where the big challenge lies.”

What all this may mean — I hope it does — is that businesses may stop their footdragging in a key aspect of economic development in Canada. That is making the investments to turn around our country’s chronically lagging productivity, which has long trailed not only the U. S. but a solid majority of other developed countries.

Governments, both provincial and federal, are ahead of the business community on this file. Our dollar is strong — always the best time to upgrade production capacity — and the business tax load imposed by both Ottawa and Victoria has been significantly moderated in recent years. It’s at a point where it compares quite well with competing jurisdictions.

If Myers’s optimism proves warranted, however, businesses will have no choice but to spend what it takes to start getting more bang for their labour dollar.

Because if they can’t find more people to go to work for them, the only option will be to get more value from each one they have on the job.

So the prospect of an economic boost from a building boom is good news. Even better news is the prospect of finally boosting Canada’s efficiency to the top of the list rather than leaving it to hover near the bottom.

Assuming, of course, that those short- term risks don’t sink us first.