Manpower issues could dim bright future

Canada is forecast to spend $ 347.5- billion providing new electricity capacity from 2011 to 2030, according to a new study, but the demands of the infrastructure outlay will exert acute pressure on an already tight labour market.

“Basically, we are hitting a wall in terms of some professions and especially when we look at construction and utilities’ occupations,” Pedro Antunes, director, national and provincial forecast at the Conference Board of Canada and author of the report, told the

Financial Post. “We are seeing occupations in the trades that are in hot demand right now across the country.”

Employment in electric power engineering construction is expected to average 49,000 jobs per year from 2011 to 2030. Since most of the investment is front- end loaded, the lift to employment will be most important over 2011 to 2016, when, on average, 75,359 jobs per year will be created in the electric power engineering construction sector, according to the report titled Shedding Light on the Economic Impact of Investing in Electricity Infrastructure.

But Mr. Antunes is careful not to ring the alarm bells just yet. “Hopefully by shedding light on the issue, markets will correct. We don’t want to necessarily assume there is going to be labour shortage. We hope that by putting the message out — like others are doing — we can address these issues. A fundamental problem in the trade is the exodus due to the older workers, and perhaps we can attract more people into these segments.”

Overcoming the labour shortages would help transform the electricity sector into a job- creating engine that spurs economic growth.

The Conference Board estimates that increased economic activity will lift household income and profits, helping to boost GDP in current dollars by an average of $ 21.3- billion per year from 2011 to 2030.

“The direct, indirect and induced impacts of that investment will add an average of $ 10.9- billion per year to real GDP and create an average of 156,000 jobs per year,” Mr Antunes said. “In other words, for every $ 100- million ( inflationadjusted) invested in electricity generation, transmission and distribution infrastructure, real GDP will be boosted by $ 85.6million and 1,200 jobs will be created.”

The Conference Board estimates the electricity industry will generate a little more than 39,000 megawatts in new capacity over the next 20 years, with large hydro the source for a third of the capacity.