Tories were high on OAS numbers

OTTAWA — As debate over the sustainability of the country’s Old Age Security system continues, new figures show the Conservative government has overestimated the cost of the system by hundreds of millions of dollars in three of the past four years.

While the government says the differences are to be expected and remain well within normal ranges, the opposition is arguing they raise further questions about the government’s longterm projections that warn the OAS is unsustainable.

A government report tabled in the House of Commons on Tuesday shows that while the government had anticipated paying out $ 29 billion in OAS during this fiscal year, but spent $ 410 million less.

The report says the difference is because there were fewer beneficiaries than expected and the average payout per person was lower than projected. In addition, more beneficiaries paid back their benefits than anticipated. The government also overestimated in 2010- 11, doling out $ 356 million less than the initial projection of $ 28 billion, and in 2008- 09, when it was off by $ 368 million.

In the past four years, the only time the government underestimated was in 200910. In this instance, the difference was $ 192 million.

A spokeswoman in Human Resources Minister Diane Finley’s office said the discrepancies are not unusual, particularly when dealing with a multibilliondollar projection and that they are within normal ranges.

“There are always going to be slight differences, but it continues to line up,” Alyson Queen said. “There will be, with any financial forecasting, a difference between your projections and your actuals.”

But NDP finance critic Peter Julian said the difference serves to further undermine the government’s long- term predictions that the OAS system is unsustainable.

“It certainly doesn’t help the government spin that has been in contradiction to all the forecasts about the viability of the OAS in the long term,” he said.

The Conservative government maintains the OAS system — which pays retired Canadians a maximum of $ 540 monthly — is on shaky financial ground because the number of seniors is expected to double over the next 20 years while the share of the population made up of workingage taxpayers will be cut in half.

Several economists and spending watchdogs, including parliamentary budget officer Kevin Page, however, have argued the OAS system is fiscally sustainable over the long term and “there’s no reason to change” eligibility rules from a fiscal standpoint.