Too early to write off Clark
Selinger and Mcguinty governments were both re- elected after early predictions that neither had a chance
[ Dix’s] choice comes down to backing the government’s position or that of the BCTF, a difficult choice given the no doubt divided loyalties of the NDP base.
Media can often be preoccupied with polls and predictions well ahead of a campaign period. Less than a year out from the recent elections in Manitoba and Ontario, pundits and pollsters predicted the political deaths of both the Greg Selinger and Dalton Mcguinty governments, both of which were ultimately returned to office. In both of these cases, there are only two possible explanations — either Selinger and Mcguinty staged miraculous, unprecedented comebacks or somehow the pundits misread what was really happening.
A similar dynamic has been at play in British Columbia, where many have already anointed the NDP under Adrian Dix as the inevitable government in waiting. ( To be fair to Dix, I doubt that he buys into any such characterizations.) Ultimately campaigns are about choice, and over the past number of weeks the choices that voters will face in 2013 are beginning to take shape. Consider the following:
• The Clark government recently brought in the most fiscally conservative budget since the days of restraint while the Dix- led NDP are pushing for additional social spending.
• The Clark government is taking a strong, if measured, position on the BCTF dispute while the Dix- led opposition is engaged in a process- driven effort to delay the cooling- off legislation introduced by government.
Each of these issues has successfully drawn clear lines that differentiate the two major parties over a year ahead of the formal campaign period. The Clark government is seeking to position itself as the party of fiscal responsibility and the recent budget was a clear statement that it intends to move aggressively on the fiscal front. Whether voters support such an aggressive approach or not, it is difficult to argue that the premier and her government were not bold in their approach. And that is the point.
Elections are ultimately about choices and on the fiscal front, the budget helped bring the choice into sharp contrast. The NDP response came as no surprise to anyone. Their opposition is largely based on their view that there are pressing social priorities that should have been addressed in the budget instead of the absolute laser focus on getting the provincial books into balance. The government received a significant, and likely unanticipated, political gift from the fledgling B. C. Conservative party in its budget response. The B. C. Conservative response was to call it an “NDP budget,” a statement that resulted in a fair bit of head scratching from even the most casual observer of B. C. politics.
Labour issues are also going to create clear wedges over the next 14 months. While Dix and his colleagues likely wish to avoid a public debate on labour issues, the current BCTF dispute brings them to the forefront of public consciousness. Thus far, Dix has carefully avoided commenting on the specifics of the dispute ( i. e. Does he support their massive wage demands when other public sector unions have settled under the net zero mandate?) and focused on process and legislative tactics. With the BCTF on strike, his position will be increasingly difficult to maintain.
The government’s position vis- à- vis the BCTF dispute further puts pressure on Dix. While being clear that a prolonged teachers’ strike is not an option, the government has taken pains not to escalate the issue by imposing a contract. Given that while in government the NDP was forced to order teachers back to work, it is difficult to see where Dix has much room to manoeuvre. His choice comes down to backing the government’s position or that of the BCTF, a difficult choice given the no doubt divided loyalties of the NDP base.
I get asked at least once a day about who I think is going to win the next provincial election. My answer is always some version of, “I don’t have the slightest clue.” What I do know is that the game has just begun and Clark and her government are starting to lay down clear markers. And that signifies the early stages of the next campaign.