Knockout punch unlikely to land today
Polls suggest Romney will extend his lead, but Gingrich and Santorum will still be standing
WASHINGTON — Mitt Romney heads into the Super Tuesday presidential primaries more as a political tortoise than hare, a slow- but- steady Republican front- runner aiming to methodically rack up more wins than the trio of weaker rivals who remain in pursuit.
But with the former Massachusetts governor having finally gained some momentum over the past week, Romney’s supporters cling to the hope of a near- sweep today of 10 states that would all but end the protracted Republican race.
Senator John Mccain said Monday a Romney victory in Ohio — the second- biggest Super Tuesday prize in terms of delegates — should be enough to convince Republican opponents Rick Santorum, Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul to abandon their campaigns.
“I hope at that point, most of us would declare or believe it’s over, and start focusing on the real adversary,” Mccain, the 2008 Republican nominee, said on the CBS Early Show.
Mccain’s wish may be more fanciful than realistic.
What’s more likely, according to polls, is a split decision in which Romney widens his overall lead in delegates without delivering a knockout punch to Santorum or the others.
In all, 419 delegates are available in today’s primaries and caucuses.
Romney holds decisive leads in Vermont and Massachusetts and could win every delegate in Virginia, a state in which neither Santorum nor Gingrich qualified for the primary ballot.
But a much tougher test awaits Romney in Ohio, with 66 delegates at stake and where the most recent polls show him in a statistical dead heat with Santorum.
A Rasmussen poll released Monday showed Santorum with 33- per- cent support in Ohio and Romney with 32 per cent.
A loss to Santorum in bluecollar Ohio would reinforce doubts among Romney’s critics about his ability to close the deal with working- class Republicans, easily the Republican demographic least enthusiastic about the former governor’s candidacy.
Romney’s campaign has been buoyed by Ohio polls that show their candidate gaining support rather than losing it.
Romney’s advisers have highlighted organizational snafus in the Santorum campaign that threaten to limit the number of delegates he can win in Ohio.
“That basic organizational test you need to battle President Obama is a test Rick Santorum and his campaign have flunked,” Ben Ginsberg, a senior Romney legal adviser, said in a weekend conference call.
“The day after Super Tuesday, the Santorum campaign is going to be looking at a sufficient [ delegate] deficit. Any realistic hope of closing the gap fades with his organizational incompetence.”
Even if Romney wins Ohio, Santorum and Gingrich could post strong enough showings elsewhere to justify continuing their campaigns.
Gingrich holds a double- digit poll lead in Georgia, the state he represented in Congress. The former House speaker said Monday he believed a Georgia victory would give him enough momentum that he could win primaries in Alabama and Mississippi on March 13. He also is looking at a possible victory in the Kansas caucuses on March 10.
“I think I’ll win at least two out of three,” predicted Gingrich, whose arm’s- length campaign “super PAC” has been boosted by a steady infusion of cash from Las Vegas casino billionaire Sheldon Adelson.
“I think the race will go on [ after Super Tuesday]. There won’t be any decisive winner.”
Santorum, although slumping in several recent polls, also sees opportunities to prolong the Republican contest.
Beyond Ohio, his campaign is banking on possible victories in Oklahoma and Tennessee, where he is in a close race with Romney and Gingrich.
“We’re hanging in there,” said Santorum, who accused Romney of thinking he could buy the Republican nomination with a better- funded campaign. “We’re being out- spent about 6- 1 again in about every state. It’s remarkable we’re doing as well as we are.”
The picture is fuzzier in three western states — North Dakota, Alaska and Idaho — that hold nominating contests on Super Tuesday. Paul, the libertarian congressman from Texas, is hoping to collect his first win of the race in Alaska or Idaho. Both Romney and Santorum have campaigned in North Dakota in the last week.
Romney’s supporters contend the former Massachusetts governor may finally be reaching the point where his nomination is becoming inevitable. They point to a trio of victories over the past week, in Michigan, Arizona and Washington state.