Rumours of Liberals’ demise exaggerated

Latest poll shows party surpassing NDP

All those predictions about a federal Liberal demise were greatly exaggerated, a just- released poll clearly demonstrates.

Results from a late- February random phone survey by Nanos Research shows the Liberals leading the New Democrats for the first time since the 2011 election, the latter having been knocked off their game by Jack Layton’s death last August

Immediately after the Liberals’ electoral drubbing, speculation was rife that the centre- left “Canadian progressives” would have no choice but to arrange a political merger in order to seriously challenge the Harper Conservatives.

Then came a book by respected author Peter C. Newman, titled When the Gods Changed; The Death of Liberal Canada.

In interviews about his book the veteran journalist predicted the party of Trudeau and Laurier was finished, dead, a corpse awaiting burial.

Well, the book these days is being offered by Indigo at a 34- per- cent discount — justified, because the Grits are experiencing a resurgence under their politically cunning interim leader Bob Rae.

The CTV/ Globe/ Nanos poll placed governing Conservatives at 35.7 per cent support — where they’ve been for a while.

But it reveals a noticeable uptick in Liberal backing, sufficient to put Liberals, at 29.5 per cent, ahead of the official Opposition New Democrats.

The NDP, perceived to be on a roll following the last election, now claims only 25 per cent support, a marked tumble from the 30.6 per cent of the popular vote received last May.

Pollster Nic Nanos says the change largely reflects a slow but steady shift in Quebec where NDP support has eroded, dropping from 43 per cent support last May to 32.6 per cent today — along with a steady rise in Liberal fortunes.

Conservative support in Quebec, meanwhile, has plummeted since the last vote. It now stands at just 15 per cent.

Nanos believes Canadians are in the process of deciding whether they prefer the NDP or Liberals as the Conservatives’ main opponent.

He notes the NDP has been hobbled by Nycole Turmel, “basically a dud as interim leader.”

New Democrats also have been handicapped by a sense their party is on hold until a new leader is chosen at its March 24 convention.

Going forward, the party will be confronting several potential hurdles, depending who wins the contest.

Front- runner Thomas Mulcair has promised an overhaul of the party, which may be resisted by longtime Ndpers.

Quebec support could shift further if a non- Quebecer, such as Peggy Nash or Paul Dewar, gets the crown.

And the party has adopted a position perceived by many as hostile to the oilsands, a key economic driver for the country right now.

Also, it’s pitching socialist solutions at a time when public sector spending cuts have become an accepted part of deficit- busting governments’ modus operandi.

Then of course, Bob Rae happens to be a savvy, articulate and personable guy. The poll shows Canadians may be warming to his charms.

A respectable 18.7 per cent of respondents pick Rae as “most competent leader.” That’s well behind Harper’s 38.1 per cent, but miles ahead of Turmel’s 5.7 per cent.

The Nanos poll indicates the Rae- led Liberals, in the past two months, have gained most ground in B. C. and Ontario.

In B. C., support jumped to 28.2 per cent from 21.2 per cent. This, despite the fact that, provincially, polls put Adrian Dix’s New Democrats ahead of the governing Liberals in Victoria.

That the federal Liberals have surged ahead of the New Democrats breaks down a psychological barrier for the beleaguered Grits, demonstrating for all to see that there’s life in the old jalopy yet.