Mulcair risks being branded by negativity
NDP leader’s angry persona quite a contrast to the likable — and popular — Layton
New Democratic Party leader Tom Mulcair has entirely forgotten what made Jack Layton’s leadership so incredibly effective.
Layton’s talent, a key factor behind the NDP’S winning of official Opposition status in May 2011, was a result of his always appearing so positive and likable.
The ever- smiling, affable politician, who died of cancer last August, spoke out in support of many things rather than focusing on what he was against.
This contrasts with the angrier persona that Mulcair is fast developing, one that could serve him poorly in the next federal election.
His scathing critique of the oilsands and other robust resource developments west of Manitoba, his call for pollution related costs to be added to the price of a barrel of oil — potentially hurting the commodity’s competitiveness, and policies he’d direct toward lowering the value of the dollar all contribute to an image of Mulcair as someone who focuses on the negative, a leader hostile to the Prairie boom.
In so heavily spotlighting this one issue, the NDP leader appears as a politician unperturbed by the idea of exacerbating tensions between east and west.
I am increasingly hearing people in Western Canada recalling the National Energy Program. The notion inherent in that Trudeau- era strategy is similar to what’s being promoted now by Mulcair — an effort to run Canada so the east is economically advantaged to the detriment of the west.
The NDP leader’s efforts to build a case that Dutch disease, resulting from rapid western resource development, is harming Canada’s eastern- based manufacturing sector, has not been as effective as he might have wished.
Had Mulcair’s argument been widely endorsed, he would have been on far stronger political ground.
But it has not. Mulcair’s theories have been assailed by no lesser players than Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney, University of Calgary economist Jack Mintz and — last week — the Institute for Research on Public Policy.
The IRPP study concluded: “A booming energy sector in Canada has indeed contributed to the strong Canadian dollar [ but] only one quarter of total manufacturing output has been adversely affected by the dollar’s increased strength.”
Moreover, said the study, “trying to weaken the dollar directly would be impractical and counterproductive.”
After plummeting during the financial crisis, the Canadian dollar rose as high as $ 1.05 US last year, but has since fallen. It closed at 97.6 cents Wednesday.
People also understand that cheaper imports and a general economic downturn have harmed Canada’s manufacturing sector, quite apart from a strong dollar.
Nor has it been helpful to Mulcair that premiers in B. C., Alberta and Saskatchewan have all slammed his position.
The NDP leader is doubtless calculating his Dutch disease campaign can net his party additional votes in Quebec and Ontario.
His party already owns 58 of Quebec’s 75 seats so — for any real payoff — Mulcair’s strategy would depend on finding a whole lot of new voters in Ontario, which last year gave 73 of its 106 seats to the Conservatives.
His campaign certainly won’t help Mulcair make gains in Western Canada, a region with 78 seats west of Manitoba.
Alberta, Saskatchewan and B. C. are naturally positively disposed to economic conditions that are netting them significant wealth.
B. C.’ s jobless rate is 6.2 per cent, while Alberta and Saskatchewan’s rates are 4.9 per cent.
And their prosperity surely helps the whole country.
If these provinces were to confront a federal government set on slowing down their economies, it’s not unthinkable that Prairie separatist movements might sprout.
After all, the federal Clarity Act confers the right on any province to negotiate for separation if “a clear majority” of its population so wishes. Imagine the uncertainty that would ensue in such an event.
Mulcair may have legitimate concerns about pollution resulting from resource development and a lack of oil refining and secondary manufacturing capacity in Canada.
But his overwhelmingly negative campaign against the current drivers of prosperity in Western Canada is bound to damage his quest to become prime minister.
The warmth and positive outlook that fuelled Layton’s rise have been nowhere in sight during the two months since Mulcair assumed the top job.