Heat could kill 150,000 in U. S. cities this century
Report issues dire warning about carbon emissions
WASHINGTON — Killer heat fuelled by climate change could cause an additional 150,000 deaths this century in the biggest U. S. cities if no steps are taken to curb carbon emissions and improve emergency services, according to a new report.
The three cities with the highest projected heat death tolls are Louisville, Ky., with an estimated 19,000 heatrelated fatalities by 2099; Detroit, with 17,900; and Cleveland, with 16,600, the Natural Resources Defense Council found in its analysis of peer- reviewed data, released on Wednesday.
Concentrated populations of poor people without access to air conditioning are expected to contribute to the rising death tolls.
Thousands of additional heat deaths were also projected by century’s end for Baltimore, Boston, Chicago, Columbus, Denver, Los Angeles, Minneapolis, Pittsburgh, Providence, R. I., St. Louis and Washington, D. C., the report said.
June, July and August are expected to see above- normal temperatures over most of the contiguous United States, from inland California to New Jersey, and from as far north as Idaho
The deadliest days are those designated Excessive Heat Events, often in urban areas where air conditioning is scarce, with sizable poor populations.
and Wyoming to Texas, Florida and the desert southwest, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said in a May 17 forecast.
The past 12 months, from May 2011 to April 2012, were the warmest in the contiguous U. S. since modern recordkeeping began; last month was the hottest April on record for the Northern Hemisphere.
These figures show climate change is already being powerfully felt, and more dangerously hot summer days are in prospect under a business asusual scenario, said Dan Lashof, director of NRDC’S climate and clean air program.
NRDC, which with other environmental groups has pushed for curbs on U. S. emissions of heat- trapping carbon dioxide, is backing a plan by the U. S. Environmental Protection Agency to limit carbon emissions from new U. S. power plants. The EPA is holding public hearings on the dangers of carbon pollution from power plants. The EPA’S plan is unlikely to go into effect until after this year’s election campaign.
The deadliest days are those designated Excessive Heat Events (EHES), often in urban areas where air conditioning is scarce or unreliable, with sizable poor populations and municipal services unprepared for large numbers of people sickened by the heat, said Larry Kalkstein, a University of Miami professor who wrote two studies on the subject.
One was published in the American Meteorological Society’s journal Weather, Climate and Society; the other in the journal Natural Hazards. Both were peer- reviewed.
There could be five times the number of EHE days by mid- century and eight times that number by the end of the century, Kalkstein said in a telephone briefing. The current average number of EHES per year is 233; by mid- century it could be 1,342, and by 2100 it could be 1,913.