Canadians gripped by Northern Gateway pipeline debate, experts and polls say
Politically charged issue could have ramifi cations for Stephen Harper in the next election
OTTAWA — Canadian history is packed with riveting battles over natural resource developments from the oilsands and dams to mining, salmon fishing and old- growth forest clearcutting.
But observers struggle to pinpoint an example in living memory of a project that has gripped the public for such a sustained period as Calgarybased Enbridge Inc.’ s proposed Northern Gateway oilsands pipeline to the West Coast.
“I have never in my experience observed such a reaction to any big project, probably since back when they were drowning villages” to construct the St. Lawrence Seaway in the 1950s, said former B. C. senator and ex- federal energy minister Pat Carney. During the Brian Mulroney era, Carney dismantled the deeply controversial and divisive national energy program. “It’s like it touched an inner nerve.”
Interest is fuelled in large part by the wide range of crucial issues: the pace of oilsands development, climate change, wealth- sharing, supertanker safety, first nations rights, fisheries protection and economic growth in an uncertain global climate.
“I’ve said repeatedly that we will not go ahead with projects that are not safe for Canadians and not safe for the environment,” Natural Resources Minister Joe Oliver reiterated in an interview. “But those that do pass regulatory muster will advance the national interest and create hundreds of thousands of jobs, trillions of dollars in economic activity and hundreds of billions in revenue to support social programs. So there’s an enormous amount at stake here.”
While stakes are already high, it’s politics that has consistently pushed the issue into overdrive, even raising questions about whether the pipeline could threaten Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s majority government in a 2015 election.
A poll released Friday by Abacus Data Inc. found that British Columbians opposed the project by a 56- 25 margin. More crucially, 41 per cent of B. C. respondents who said they voted Conservative in 2011 said they are against Northern Gateway.
That spells trouble for Harper, who took 21 of 36 B. C. seats last year and needs the province — which will have 42 seats in the 2015 election — to keep his majority, according to Abacus pollster David Coletto.
“I do think the Tories are risking support if they remain adamantly supportive of the pipeline,” Coletto said.
Harper’s government “needs all its seats in B. C. to keep its majority. If 2015 is about energy and the government doesn’t sell the importance of the oilsands and energy transportation to Canadians, look out.”
Tom Siddon, a former Tory minister of fisheries and Indian affairs in the Mulroney governments of 1984- 93, compares the Harper government’s support for oilsands pipelines to
I don’t think Harper and his gang have figured out this is not an issue driven by a bunch of crazy radicals and environmentalists, funded by some foreign interests. TOM SIDDON FORMER TORY MP
Mulroney’s explosive 1986 decision to give Quebec rather than Manitoba a lucrative maintenance contract for CF- 18 fighters.
“It was a purely political decision, and some say that’s why the Mulroney government was wiped out in ’ 93,” said Siddon, a Northern Gateway opponent.
“Of course there were other factors, but this [ Northern Gateway] is bigger than the CF- 18 decision. This is squarely political and is coming from Harper’s own backyard in Calgary.”
The government has already started to distance itself from the project.
James Moore, Harper’s senior B. C. minister, was harshly critical of Northern Gateway a few weeks after a U. S. regulator’s devastating report labelled Enbridge a “Keystone Kops” company due to its handling of a massive 2010 Michigan spill. Harper followed with a statement saying regulators considering science, rather than politics, will decide whether the project proceeds.
But it’s hard to imagine the debate will be left to scientists and number- crunchers. The NDP’s federal and B. C. leaders, Tom Mulcair and Adrian Dix, as well as B. C. Premier Christy Clark and her Alberta counterpart Alison Redford, have also used Northern Gateway to try to win popular support.
Some argue that the federal government’s problems with the issue began with Natural Resources Minister Joe Oliver’s public letter in January on the eve of the Northern Gateway public hearings.
It lambasted “radical” environmental groups, saying they were using foreign funds to stymie Canada’s need to export more resources to Asia.
But the attack has been exploited by critics who say the government has been insulting ordinary Canadians who legitimately oppose the project.
“I don’t think Harper and his gang have figured out this is not an issue driven by a bunch of crazy radicals and environmentalists, funded by some foreign interests,” said Siddon.
University of Lethbridge political scientist Chris Kukucha said the Northern Gateway developments — the “Keystone Kops” report and the Clark- Redford clash — happened at a time when there is little competition for the media’s attention.
Kukucha said Redford is helping to sustain interest in the pipeline because of her initiatives on several energy fronts, including a campaign for a “National Energy Plan” and the introduction of new environmental standards for the oilsands sector.
“Redford is also using her opposition to Clark’s demands for compensation for building the pipeline as a means of demonstrating leadership, especially to an industry slightly wary of her centrist- leaning politics.”
In an interview, Oliver said Canadians needed to know that there are environmental groups that oppose all natural resource projects regardless of circumstances, that some are foreignfunded, and that “trillions” of dollars in economic activity is at stake if projects are blocked.
“I wanted to get the attention of the public, and I would say a year later that these issues, and the knowledge that Canadians have about what’s at stake, have increased greatly,” he said.
“And we’re going to continue to be engaged in that national conversation among Canadians.”
Carney, a minister from 198488 and a member of Harper’s caucus before retiring from the Senate in 2008, puts less emphasis on the government’s anti- environmentalist rhetoric.
The Abacus poll, which suggested that a significant minority of Conservative- minded voters are troubled by the pipeline, involved a survey of 2,099 drawn from an online panel of 150,000 Canadians.
The company weighted data so respondents reflected Canadian census statistics in terms of age and gender. The survey was conducted Aug. 10- 12 and included an extra- large sample from B. C. totalling 793 respondents.