Were the New Democrats just a passing fancy?
The party has failed to identify a galvanizing issue to rally Canadians
The only province where the New Democrats were found to be in top spot in the Ipsos Reid poll was B. C., with 36 per cent support.
If you’re a guy and your girlfriend leaves town, you start dating her friend. When she returns, you dump the friend and resume courting girl No. 1.
Federal New Democrats, fresh from their weekend policy convention in Montreal, may be wondering whether they’re playing the hapless role of the dumped friend.
Doubtless, they’re disheartened by polls revealing their supporters to be fickle, re-embracing the Liberal party.
In retrospect, is it possible New Democrats — who had made such a positive impression on Canadians as a result of Jack Layton’s charming style and tragic passing — were naught but a passing electoral fancy?
Only a temporary substitute for Liberal love while the Grits were down and out?
An Ipsos Reid poll, conducted from March 28 to April 3, found the Liberals with 32 per cent support, statistically tied with the Conservatives, claiming 31 per cent backing.
Meanwhile, the formerly second- place New Democrats trailed, with 27 per cent backing. A Nanos Research poll last week showed similar results.
The only province where the New Democrats were found to be in top spot in the Ipsos Reid poll was B. C., with 36 per cent support — which may be connected to provincial NDP strength.
In the party’s Quebec stronghold, the New Democrats have lost their pre- eminence, now tied with the Liberals.
A large part of the Liberal rebound, of course, can be explained by a shiny new leader.
When respondents were quizzed on who would make the best PM, Justin Trudeau consistently scored highest.
Even a majority of the NDP’s own voters — 59 per cent of them — reported believing the just- crowned Liberal leader has the best chance of beating the Harper Conservatives in the next election.
Such a finding, notes an Ipsos analysis, suggests that a good chunk of the anti- Harper vote was simply parked with the NDP and could soon relocate to the Liberal lot.
The New Democrats, overjoyed back in 2011 to at last get the opportunity to be the official Opposition — must be scratching their heads.
What happened? Well, the New Democrats have failed to identify a galvanizing issue to rally Canadians.
Positions the party has promoted instead have been divisive, generating strong debate rather than consolidating support.
Many disagreed with Mulcair’s view that western resource development was to blame for Dutch disease in the east. Or that the Keystone XL pipeline to carry Alberta oil to Texas was a scourge. Or that Quebec should have the right to negotiate separation after a 50 per cent- plus one sovereignty vote.
Mulcair himself is charming in person but gives an impression of being stern and unsympathetic.
“He’s got to build his personal brand,” pollster Nik Nanos recently told CBC- TV. “Because right now, on the personality front, he’s trailing both Stephen Harper and Justin Trudeau.”
It’s a case of which- guy- would you-rather- sit- and- have- a- beer with; probably not Mulcair, though Harper would be no laugh- riot either.
Of course, it’s too early for NDPers to panic.
For now, people are projecting whatever they want on to Trudeau because he has yet to elaborate on his party’s policies.
And Canada is still more than two years from a vote, loads of time for leadership stumbles, caucus dissent and negative ads.
The Liberals also face a daunting task in rejuvenating their constituency associations across the country, many of which are in sad shape.
That said, the Conservatives have to be wondering if a Liberal resurgence will upset the vote- splitting dynamic that has served them so well in past elections.
And the New Democrats can’t be blamed for feeling jilted by voters who seem willing to abandon them just when they’d hoped at long last to have a shot at governing.