Fraser Valley veers toward the centre
Newcomers are changing the political leanings of a former Liberal stronghold
When New Democrat Gwen O’Mahony took the Liberal stronghold of Chilliwack- Hope in last year’s byelection, a popular theory was formed.
The B. C. Conservatives — at the top of a short- lived growth spurt — earned 25 per cent of the vote with John Martin, a well- known criminology professor at the University of the Fraser Valley.
Liberal Laurie Throness, whose conservative pedigree includes stints as an adviser to Preston Manning, Stockwell Day and Stephen Harper, earned 32 per cent.
That left O’Mahony, a community health worker, to cruise up the middle of a right- wing vote split. She drew about 42 per cent of the vote for her party’s first win of the seat vacated by former Liberal attorney general Barry Penner.
At least that was the story for those outside the riding — a vast area of rural B. C. encompassing portions of the city of Chilliwack, the district of Hope and a host of communities tumbling up the Fraser Valley as far as Boston Bar.
From inside the riding, things looked quite different.
“You guys in Vancouver, sitting at The Vancouver Sun, you think you’ve got ( ChilliwackHope) in a nice little box,” said Paul Boileau, a member of Chilliwack’s Chamber of Commerce and manager of a manufacturing company.
The assumption the riding’s right- leaning, farm- focused electorate elected the NDP to power by fluke is woefully inadequate, Boileau said.
Between the 2009 election and last year’s byelection, O’Mahony increased her vote share by nine percentage points, he pointed out. Another gain like that would push her to a majority, and Boileau isn’t discounting that possibility.
“It’s not just explained by a split on the right, it’s explained by real change,” he said of the byelection results. The riding is shifting — and fast. The population of greater Chilliwack ( which is split between two provincial ridings) increased by nearly 10,000 since 2006, pushing it over 90,000.
Boileau was on the leading edge, arriving in 2003 from the Lions Bay area and settling, like most newcomers, south of the highway in areas that fall within Chilliwack- Hope.
“This riding is undergoing a huge transformation — hundreds of new people coming into the community, and it’s obviously going to have an effect,” said Boileau.
He argues the newcomers are open to new ideas and more suited to the middle of the political spectrum than to either extreme. Centrists, he said, are growing in number and will decide a tight contest.
“I think that the centre is where the election is going to be won or lost.”
This time, Chilliwack- Hope will likely be a two- way race between the incumbent and the Liberals. Any Conservative momentum evaporated after the byelection when Martin switched to the Liberals. He is the Liberal candidate in the neighbouring Chilliwack riding.
His Conservative replacement, Michael Henshall, is not widely known. The Green party has opted out of the riding alltogether.
O’Mahony has won many fans, some in unlikely areas of the socially and geographically diverse riding. From Chilliwack to Hope to the far reaches of the valley, she’s built her reputation, said Lloyd Forman, a director with the Fraser Valley Regional District based in Boston Bar.
“She’s just a good, honest, straight worker,” said Forman, a former Liberal candidate who now considers himself non- partisan. “I do not believe Gwen has an agenda, she’s just there to serve the people.”
Her continued success will depend on a jobs plan for the region, he said, noting onceproductive mill towns in the area have become “full of old guys and people on welfare.”
And Chilliwack needs more workers equipped to fill hightech trades jobs in manufacturing and production.
But O’Mahony’s popularity may not translate into votes in a riding with deep- seated political allegiances.
“I always say I’ll never vote NDP personally, but she’s a wonderful MLA and if we had more like her we’d be a lot better off,” Forman said.
Liberal candidate Throness is a formidable opponent, said Hamish Telford, a political- science professor at the University of the Fraser Valley.
“He’s very well- known in the community and belongs to one of the biggest churches and is well- connected in that area,” he said.
Telford was one of the few willing to guess how things will shake out on May 14.
“If I had to put money on it, I’d bet on it reverting back to the Liberals. But I bet on John Martin last time and lost.”
For this election, the only thing certain in ChilliwackHope is that bettors would be wise to sit this one out.