China imposes sanctions
North Korea is facing unprecedented sanctions but it’s unclear whether it will be enough to convince it to abandon its nuclear weapons program.
China is imposing unprecedented trade and financial sanctions on North Korea, but it is unclear whether the net is tight enough to persuade Pyongyang to give up its nuclear weapons program.
Last week, China’s four largest state- controlled banks announced they are suspending business with North Korea’s Foreign Trade Bank, in line with instructions from Beijing.
And reports from South Korea say China has stepped up customs checks on goods destined for North Korea, which is seriously inhibiting trade.
In both cases, China appears to be following the requirements of United Nations Security Council resolution 2094, which expanded sanctions against the Pyongyang regime after it tested an intercontinental missile late last year and conducted its third underground test of a nuclear warhead in February.
China is the only significant ally and trade partner for North Korea, which Beijing sees as an essential buffer against United States influence and military presence in the Far East.
Until now, Beijing has judged its own national interest makes stability on the Korean peninsular more important than forcing Pyongyang to abandon its nuclear program. China has therefore always opted to ensure that the North Korean regime does not collapse.
Such a collapse would probably lead to reunification of the two Koreas under the leadership of U. S. ally South Korea.
But in recent weeks, it has become evident that Beijing has, at the very least, become irritated with the bellicose blusterings of North Korea’s new young leader, Kim Jong- un.
Beijing has also been the target of an intensive lobby by the administration of U. S. President Barack Obama to apply pressure on North Korea.
Chinese officials are quick to emphasize, however, that they are responding to the requirements of the UN resolution, not the entreaties of Washington.
There has also been an unusually public debate among Chinese intellectuals over whether the time has come to end unqualified support for the Pyongyang regime.
While Beijing is unlikely to change its view that stability outweighs denuclearization, last week’s announcement of trade and economic moves are a clear warning to Pyongyang that it is endangering the one relationship on which the survival of the regime depends.
The Bank of China, the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, the China Construction Bank and the Agricultural Bank of China all said they have suspended money transfers to North Korea.
It is unclear, however, what the practical results of this embargo will be. On one hand, trade with China is the only surviving element in North Korea’s economy, which has been enfeebled by poor administration, eccentric economic theories, years of drought, and progressively stronger international sanctions.
North Korea sells China fish and mineral ores in return for food, energy and other necessities of life.
China now accounts for over 70 per cent of North Korea’s entire external trade, which South Korean officials estimate was worth about $ 8 billion in 2011.
How much of this trade flows through North Korea’s Foreign Trade Bank, and is therefore threatened by the Chinese sanctions, is not known.
However, there have been several reports in the region that much of the trade between China and North Korea is conducted through cash transfers or barter deals.
Human couriers are also frequently used by Chinese companies to take cash into North Korea to pay for goods.
So China’s ban on bank transfers may be more symbolic than a real sanction. But the symbolism is profound, and Pyongyang has become noticeably quiet since the embargoes were imposed.
As well as the silence, preparations for a test of a new missile, spotted by spy satellites in April, appear to have been stopped.
Meanwhile, Chinese businesses trading with North Korea are reporting that their cargoes are being given rigorous inspections by Chinese customs officials.
Again, the move appears to be in line with the UN resolution aimed at blocking North Korea receiving any materials that could be used for its nuclear weapons and missile programs.
Chinese traders say the strict customs inspections for blacklisted goods have significantly slowed trade with North Korea and therefore sharply lowered the volume.