Raptors fans have that déjà- vu feeling
TORONTO — It is beginning to feel a lot like seven years ago.
That year, the Toronto Raptors’ new general manager, a man with a track record of success in the league, lorded over the team with promises of righting a wayward franchise.
The Raptors got off to a disappointing start, falling as many as seven games below .500, putting the head coach’s job in severe danger.
The Raptors turned their season around with two surprising road wins in December, against the L. A. Clippers and Portland.
The team wound up taking advantage of a diminished Eastern Conference, playing some beautiful basketball to earn 47 wins and a division title.
The general manager and coach were honoured as the best in the league, with the coach getting a multi- year contract extension.
This year, although the specifics have changed, the broad strokes feel awfully similar.
The new general manager is Masai Ujiri, not Bryan Colangelo. The coach, on the last year of his contract, is Dwane Casey, not Sam Mitchell.
The Raptors’ nadir was six games below .500 and the wins came on the road against Dallas and Oklahoma City.
A major in- season trade was involved, “tanking” has been a discussed path, and 50 games still remain in the regular season following the Raptors’ 10297 loss to the Heat in Miami on Sunday.
No amount of success is guaranteed, but things are looking awfully good for the Raptors these days.
ESPN’s algorithms have the Raptors heading for 50 wins, a 99.9 per cent chance of making the playoffs, a 99 per cent chance of winning the Atlantic Division and, what the heck, a 16 per cent chance of making the finals.
While precisely none of that passes the smell test — the Raptors entered Sunday’s play just four games up on the Celtics, who are also the ninth- seeded team, for the division lead — the point is clear: It would take a combination of failureminded trades, bad play and bad luck to get the Raptors into the lottery. And that has some fans worried.
Those who wanted the Raptors to lose early and often this year did not want that because they love misery. Instead, they saw ( and continue to see) a high draft pick as the most likely road to sustained success in the future, something that has eluded the Raptors for 19 seasons now.
There are lessons to learn that could help these Raptors find some meaningful, sustained success.
• Do not get too attached: These Raptors are playing fun, gritty basketball. There is very little Ujiri could do right now to coax more out of his roster. But that chemistry will not necessarily last beyond this season ( or this week, for that matter). Internal evaluation will be important.
Assuming this roster makes it to the end of the season, Ujiri will have to put a price on unrestricted free agent Kyle Lowry, while also debating whether to try to move up in the draft by dangling some of his young, emerging talent. It will be the general manager’s job to properly contextualize the team’s success, should they achieve it, at that time.
• Be patient: In the summer of 2007, Colangelo signed sharpshooter Jason Kapono to a four- year deal worth the full mid- level exception. The next summer, Colangelo gave up T. J. Ford and a draft pick eventually used on Roy Hibbert to acquire Jermaine O’Neal. In both cases, the Raptors were trying to accelerate their progress. Both moves failed on their own merits — and they limited the Raptors access to young talent and cap flexibility, two necessary things for teams trying to build a healthy organization. Even if they win 50 games and a playoff round, these Raptors will be more than one piece away from sustained contention. Do not go all- in too soon.
• Have fun: Even if the correct lessons are heeded, the Raptors young talent develops at a normal pace and the organization is healthy, success can be fleeting for one obvious reason: Luck.
More of it exists than anyone involved in professional sports wants to admit. All you can do is put your organization in the best position possible to withstand a spurt of bad luck. For now, the Raptors are playing well, and it should be savoured. The future lurks, but that does not have to be a bleak reality.