Vancouver Sun

Oil spill risk low: analysis

Environmen­talists question the fi ndings of study done for Kinder Morgan.

- GORDON HOEKSTRA

When it comes to Kinder Morgan’s proposed Trans Mountain pipeline expansion, the biggest fear of British Columbians is the increased risk of a catastroph­ic oil spill in the Salish Sea. To gauge the probabilit­y of such a spill, the oil transport company sought an opinion from Det Norske Veritas, world- leading risk analysts. The company was reassured by the findings of their consultant­s. Det Norske Veritas calculatio­ns show the existing risk of a “worst- case” oil spill of 104,000 barrels in the Salish Sea is extremely low: once in 3,000 years.

The risk increases significan­tly — to once in 460 years — with the jump in tanker traffic from Kinder Morgan’s $ 5.4- billion Trans Mountain pipeline expansion.

But the probabilit­y of such a spill is driven back down to once in 2,300 years when the company’s proposed mitigation measures, including additional tug escorts, are factored in. Annual tanker traffic would increase six- fold, to 408 return trips.

The figures are outlined in a 15,000- page project applicatio­n submitted to the National Energy Board ( NEB) last month. For a spill half the size of a worst- case spill, the probabilit­y increases to once in 437 years. For a spill of any kind, as low as less than one barrel, it jumps again to 237 years.

The estimates are based on historical accident and spill figures, and include future ship traffic projection­s. The findings give the company confidence tankers will continue to safely navigate the Strait of Juan de Fuca, thread Haro Strait and Boundary Pass through the San Juan and Gulf Islands, and into the Strait of Georgia, eventually passing Stanley Park and into the slim gap of the Second Narrows rail bridge to Westridge Terminal.

Whether Kinder Morgan’s calculatio­ns will provide assurance to its long list of opponents is another question.

Most critics tend to focus less on the probabilit­y of a major oil spill, and more on the consequenc­es should one happen. ( Kinder Morgan has also proposed to increase oil- spill response capacity).

With the devastatin­g effects of the 1989 Exxon Valdez oil spill still in mind, environmen­talists, communitie­s in the Gulf Islands but also Vancouver, and First Nations, point to the consequenc­es a major incident would have in the Salish Sea — an area rich in aquatic life and wildlife and renowned for its beauty.

As the province’s tourism slogan “Beautiful B. C.” suggests, the promise of unsullied nature is a draw for visitors from around the world. The marine environmen­t in the region is also a playground for the 11 million residents of British Columbia and Washington state.

Computer spill scenarios in Kinder Morgan’s project applicatio­n show oil from a spill could end up on the shoreline of Washington state.

“You can come up with a doomsday scenario, but it’s not really helpful to the discourse unless we can frame it in terms of how likely it is to happen,” says Michael Davies, director of marine developmen­t for Kinder Morgan.

“What sets the work apart that we’ve provided in the applicatio­n, is the fact we have this risk assessment on the probabilit­y side. And that’s an important piece for the public to understand.”

About 60 Aframax- size tankers — which can only be loaded about 80 per cent to 585,000 barrels so they can safely make it through the Second Narrows — already dock each year at the Westridge Terminal in Burnaby.

Many, such as the 250- metre DHT Sophie, which loaded at Westridge a week ago , are headed to refineries in California. But there’s been increasing demand by Alberta oilsands producers to access new markets in Asia. Their goals are being championed by both the Alberta and Canadian government­s.

Canada is almost solely reliant on the U. S. as a destinatio­n for its oil.

Both Enbridge’s $ 6.5- billion Northern Gateway pipeline through northern B. C. and Kinder Morgan’s expansion of its Trans Mountain pipeline are meant to satisfy this export appetite.

The additional 350 tanker loadings each year from the Kinder Morgan expansion will be added to more than 500 tankers that already ply the Salish Sea, headed to refineries in Washington state.

In an effort to keep the calculated risk of a major spill extremely low, Kinder Morgan is proposing to fill in gaps in tug escorts between Westridge Terminal and the Pacific Ocean.

Tankers already have to be tethered to powerful tugs through the Burrard Inlet from the Westridge Terminal to English Bay, and again at East Point at the southeast tip of Saturna Island to Brotchie Ledge south of Esquimalt on Vancouver Island. The tug escort continues to Race Rocks, south of Metchosin, but without the requiremen­t of cables.

Kinder Morgan proposes adding escort tug coverage from Burrard Inlet to East Point, and from Race Rocks to the entrance of the Strait of Juan de Fuca. It would provide full escort tug coverage, protecting against a loss of power and grounding along the inner coastline route.

The company has also proposed the creation of a moving exclusion zone around loaded tankers, perhaps as much as 500 metres, which would be monitored by the Canadian and U. S. coast guards.

The new provisions would be added to rules and practices for oil tankers that are already restrictiv­e.

Two years ago, the federal safety agency Pacific Pilotage Authority added a requiremen­t for two pilots to help navigate tankers through local waters. The pilots use their own independen­t navigation­al equipment.

Tankers are restricted to daylight hours, and must pass through Second Narrows at slack tide, when currents are slowest, and when the passage is clear of other vessels.

Tankers are also vetted for age and maintenanc­e records and are subject to Transport Canada inspection­s.

Canadian rules also require double- hulled tankers, to lessen the risk of puncture should the ship run aground.

The Exxon Valdez was single hulled, and had no pilots or tug escorts.

Pacific Pilotage Authority CEO Kevin Obermeyer said he cannot guarantee a spill is never going to happen, but stressed the safety is so high already the risk is minute.

“With all the additional checks and balances that Kinder Morgan is putting in place, I think they are working as hard as we are to ensure this never

Somebody has to explain to me how we get from one ( catastroph­ic spill) in 15 years to one in 2,500 some- odd while increasing the number of vessels out here.

KAREN WRISTEN

EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR OF LIVING OCEANS SOCIETY

happens,” said Obermeyer.

He notes there’s never been a major oil tanker incident in B. C. waters.

When looking at all tanker mishaps, including smaller vessels carrying chemicals and liquids such as canola, there have been few serious incidents in the past two decades.

According to Pacific Pilotage Authority data cited in Kinder Morgan’s applicatio­n, there were only six tanker incidents in the past 20 years.

The numbers don’t include other shipping incidents involving large ships. For example, on Dec. 7, 2012, a bulk carrier sliced through a causeway and Westshore Terminals coal conveyor at Roberts Bank, dumping some coal into the ocean.

The last tanker incident was in 2008, when the chemical tanker Fujigawa damaged a midship rail at Lynnterm Terminal in North Vancouver.

Other incidents in 1999, 1997 and 1994 were also minor in nature, with damage taking place at dockside.

In the past decade, the largest oil spill the industry- funded western Canadian Marine Response Corp. ( WCMRC) dealt with was at Westridge Terminal in 2007. But that leak was from a pipeline punctured by an excavator, not a marine spill.

The most recent call- out for the response team was two months ago, when it cleaned up two tonnes of canola in Burrard Inlet.

The organizati­on, created in 1971, has never responded to a major oil tanker spill, noted WCMRC spokesman Michael Lowry.

Critics of the pipeline expansion are not satisfied with Kinder Morgan’s risk analysis or the oil tanker safety record in B. C. They point to a Nestucca tank barge spill in Washington state on Dec. 23, 1988 in which 5,500 barrels were spilled after a tug hit the barge. Oil reached beaches in northern Oregon, and a week later washed up on Vancouver Island shores. Tens of thousands of sea birds died, according to a 2011 report from the Pacific States/ British Columbia Oil Spill Task Force.

Also of concern is a November 2009 incident in which the bulk carrier Hebei Lion dragged its anchor in high winds and was blown on to a rocky reef near Mayne Island, also noted in the task force report.

That incident was a wake- up call for Gulf Island residents, says Islands Trust chairwoman Sheila Malcolmson.

The Trust, which has municipal responsibi­lities for the Gulf Islands, opposes the Kinder Morgan expansion. “Any spill is going to be bad news,” said Malcolmson, noting the islands are an ecological­ly sensitive area with “funky” currents.

“We don’t have any confidence that Canada is in a position to handle the risk we have now, let alone the risk that’s posed by an additional almost 400 tankers a year through our waters,” she said.

Living Oceans Society executive director Karen Wristen does not trust Kinder Morgan’s risk analysis.

She points to a federal government­commission­ed risk analysis carried out in 1990 following the Exxon Valdez spill that found the probabilit­y of a “catastroph­ic” marine oil spill — of over 84,000 barrels — can be expected once every 15 years in Canadian waters. A major spill of 100 to 10,000 tonnes was probable once a year. The highest risk was pegged in Eastern Canada, particular­ly Newfoundla­nd.

“Somebody has to explain to me how we get from one in 15 years to one in 2,500 some odd while increasing the number of vessels out here,” said Wristen.

“You are playing with numbers,” she argued, while acknowledg­ing that her organizati­on does not have the money to hire experts to “poke credible holes” in Kinder Morgan’s risk analysis.

Wristen said the increased tanker traffic conflicts with protection requiremen­ts for federally designated habitat in southern waters for killer and humpback whales.

Under federal laws, the whales are meant to be protected from identified threats, said Wristen. She said it’s a “no brainer” that an oil spill is a threat to the whales, adding even the underwater noise and an increased risk of strikes of whales by the ships is a problem.

“There’s no way we should be shipping any oil out of the Burrard Inlet and through the Salish Sea,” Wristen said.

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 ??  ?? A Kinder Morgan Canada employee assists with a tanker departure in Burrard Inlet at the Westridge marine terminal in Burnaby.
A Kinder Morgan Canada employee assists with a tanker departure in Burrard Inlet at the Westridge marine terminal in Burnaby.
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 ??  ?? Kinder Morgan’s submission to the National Energy Board proposes increasing tug boat protection for oil tankers from Burrard Inlet to the Strait of Juan de Fuca.
Kinder Morgan’s submission to the National Energy Board proposes increasing tug boat protection for oil tankers from Burrard Inlet to the Strait of Juan de Fuca.

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