Seismologist claimed ‘ Holy Grail’ of quake prediction

Vladimir Keilis- Borok developed algorithms

Vladimir Keilis- Borok, who has died aged 92, was a Russian seismologist and claimed to have discovered geophysics’ “Holy Grail” — a foolproof method of predicting earthquakes.

A bespectacled, dishevelled man, Keilis- Borok developed predictive algorithms based on identifying “seismic chains” ( series of smaller tremors) that could herald more devastating quakes. He called this methodology “the tail wagging the dog.”

In 2003 he made headlines when two of his predictions turned out to be correct. In June that year he predicted a magnitude 6.4 or greater quake within nine months in a 40,000- square- mile region of central California. Although ( based on historical activity) there was less than a five per cent chance of his forecast proving correct, on Dec. 22 a magnitude 6.5 quake struck on the southern edge of the prediction zone, killing two people.

In July 2003 Keilis- Borok predicted a magnitude 7 or greater earthquake within six months in a region of Japan that includes the northernmost island of Hokkaido — a prediction that, based on history, had a 30 per cent chance of proving correct. On Sept. 25 a magnitude 8.1 earthquake injured 500 people on the island.

These successes raised the profile of earthquake prediction, which scientists had tended to dismiss as nonsense. A body called the California Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council concluded Keilis- Borok’s methods, while insufficiently tested, appeared to be “a legitimate approach.”

So when he predicted in January 2004 that a quake measuring 6.4 or more on the Richter scale would strike before Sept. 4 with an epicentre under the desert outside Los Angeles, people took it seriously. Local authorities were told to get their emergency plans up to date. Residents in the areas at risk stockpiled water, food, medicine, batteries and flashlights. The city of Palm Springs reported being “inundated with calls.”

Based on historical records, the quake had a less than 10 per cent chance of occurring in the period, and Keilis- Borok himself put the chances at only 50: 50.

Sept. 4 came and went, causing some to suggest Keilis- Borok had simply been lucky on the first two occasions. Today, many seismologists remain skeptical about the possibility of forecasting earthquakes with any reasonable degree of accuracy.

Vladimir Keilis- Borok was born in Moscow on July 31, 1921 to Jewish parents. When the Germans invaded Russia in 1941, Vladimir was sent to the front to install communication lines, a highly dangerous job. Luckily the Soviet authorities decided his scientific talents might be better employed doing something less risky, and sent him to eastern Russia to prospect for oil. After the war he studied at the Russian Academy of Sciences, earning a doctorate in 1948.

In the 1960s, during the Cold War, Keilis- Borok studied seismic waves from underground nuclear explosions and compared them with those of earthquakes, contributing his expertise to the 1963 U. S.- Soviet arms control talks. At about the same time he started travelling to the West, and subsequently enjoyed spells as a visiting professor at universities in the United States and Italy. By the 1980s he had moved on to earthquake- prediction theory and had founded a research institute in Moscow.

In 1985, Keilis- Borok forecast that a quake would strike in the near future along the San Andreas Fault in California. The Soviets took this so seriously that, during a summit in Geneva that year, then- Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev mentioned it to then- U. S. president Ronald Reagan. The prediction appeared to be vindicated when, on Oct, 17, 1989, an earthquake measuring 6.9 on the Richter scale interrupted a World Series baseball game in San Francisco, causing a highway viaduct to collapse and leaving 63 people dead.

Keilis- Borok’s prediction led to a long collaboration with U. S. seismologists, and in 1998 he joined the University of California, Los Angeles.

As well as earthquakes, Keilis- Borok applied his mathematical algorithms to other phenomena, including economic recessions, crime trends and presidential elections.

Keilis- Borok was twice widowed, and is survived by his daughter.