Crimea awaits its day of reckoning
Sunday referendum: Many on peninsula are already celebrating a return to the Russian fold
SIMFEROPOL, Ukraine — With the United States and Russia still with “no common vision” on Crimea after an emergency meeting of their foreign ministers in London on Friday, the rush to decide the peninsula’s future will almost certainly end Sunday with a strong majority voting to separate from Ukraine and join Russia.
Once the epochal referendum result is announced late Sunday or Monday, Russian President Vladimir Putin must decide whether to formally annex Crimea and make it part of his country, or let it become either an independent state or a totally autonomous state with the thinnest of ties to Ukraine. In either of the two latter scenarios, the territory would, de facto become a Russian protectorate. All three potential outcomes would be welcomed by, at a guess, between 60 per cent and 80 per cent of the peninsula’s two million people as well as by tens of millions of Russians.
In fact, many Crimeans were already celebrating their secession from Ukraine on Friday, driving through Simferopol, honking their horns and trailing Russian flags while loudspeakers blared patriotic Russian music.
Unless Putin does an uncharacteristic volte- face and chooses to leave Crimea as part of Ukraine, there will be consternation in Kyiv and western capitals.
U. S. President Barack Obama and German Chancellor Angela Merkel — who warned Russia of dire economic consequences on Thursday — as well as other leaders will have to make good on an angry chorus of promises they have made to impose stiff sanctions on Russia if Crimea secedes. Moreover, they have signalled their intention to isolate Russia politically, triggering something resembling a new Cold War.
The question Crimeans will read on Sunday’s ballot is simple. To paraphrase: “Do you want to stay with Ukraine? Or do you want to go with Russia.” While Crimea has been papered with signage indicating fealty to Moscow, it has been impossible to find pro- Ukraine signs anywhere in Crimea this week.
Whatever happens, the Russian ruble may soon replace the Ukrainian hryvnya in Crimea. Paper hangers who have been frantically pasting up pro- Russia billboards confided Friday that they had been told to expect their next pay in rubles.
A quick decision on what currency will be legal tender might help settle the panic among Crimeans about their financial future. A run on Ukrainian and Russian banks, which began in earnest on Thursday, got so bad by closing time Friday that those with accounts were only able to withdraw the equivalent of $ 50 Cdn. And those with foreign credit cards, including the hundreds of journalists here, could withdraw no money at all.
Crimeans have a long list of other questions such as whether pensions will continue to be paid, whether they will have the choice of being Russian or Ukrainian citizens and what the laws will be regarding property rights.
There are also grave concerns about how Crimea will get its food, fuel and electricity if it secedes from Kyiv, as Ukraine now supplies most of these essentials. Obviously aware of the potential problem regarding power, convoys of trucks from Russia could be seen Friday bringing in huge generators.
Using rubles or wondering about power supplies would have been unthinkable only three weeks ago. That was before Ukraine’s pro- Russia president Viktor Yanukovych was unexpectedly toppled in a coup in Kyiv.
Russia reacted a few days later by sending army brigades to Crimea, which is only half the size of Nova Scotia. The move was ostensibly done to protect Crimea’s Russian majority, even though almost all the radicals who brought down Yanukovych are still camped out in Kyiv’s Independence Square, trying to ensure they have a major say in the new government there.
The troops Putin ordered to Crimea have mostly been used to surround Ukrainian army, air force and navy bases where they have tried, sometimes through intimidation and at other times through low- key talks, to convince the troops inside to switch allegiances or surrender and leave. Whether the Russian commanders’ patience wears out after Sunday’s referendum is one of many open questions.
Whatever Putin decides regarding Crimea’s fate, the decision will cause deep distress to Crimean Tatars — Turkicspeaking Muslims who were the peninsula’s original inhabitants — who make up about 12 per cent of the population. Exiled for half a century to Soviet Central Asia by Soviet premier Josef Stalin, those Tatars who managed to return after Ukraine achieved independence in 1991 want nothing to do with Moscow.
Crimea matters deeply to Russians because of the siege of Sevastopol during the Crimean War and the similarly heroic defence of the Black Sea port by the Red Army during the Second World War. The Russian navy has had a presence on the Black Sea for several centuries. Because of this history, Russians were furious at what they have regarded as the traitorous behaviour of Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev. While said to be drunk, he gave Crimea to Ukraine as a gift in 1954.
While Ukraine and the West wonder what Putin will do next, he ponders whether to continue pushing his advantage by sending tanks, infantry and artillery units into the Ukrainian mainland. Russian troops have been mustering on their side of the border since unscheduled exercises were suddenly called on Thursday.
As the Kremlin has done throughout the fast- moving Ukrainian crisis, it sent mixed messages on Friday about what might happen after the referendum, which was only scheduled last weekend, giving virtually no time for any public debate here.
After meeting with U. S. Secretary of State John Kerry on Friday, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said Moscow “does not have any plans to invade eastern or southern Ukraine.”
Yet at the same time, the Russian Foreign Ministry accused “right- wing” Ukrainian nationalist groups of inciting violence in the eastern mining city of Donetsk. The ministry statement said Russia was “aware of its responsibility for the lives of compatriots” and Ukrainians, and “reserves the right to take people under its protection there.”
Similar views were expressed shortly before the Russian parliament granted Putin’s request to send troops into Crimea.
Although it would be considerably harder than the Crimean campaign, which has not yet resulted in a single fatality, Russian troops would likely have little difficulty quickly capturing the eastern quarter of Ukraine, with its military superiority over Kyiv’s feeble army and air force.
The nightmare scenario, which has been discussed in Kyiv but not yet publicly in the West, would be if Putin gave his commanders orders to take Kyiv. It would take Russian armoured and infantry units no more than a day to reach the outskirts of the capital. Short of declaring all- out war, there is little the West could do about it.