5 THINGS

Uncertainty lingers over eastern Ukraine sovereignty vote

HOW IT STARTED

MOSCOW — People in two regions of restive eastern Ukraine — Donetsk and Luhansk — will vote on Sunday on declaring sovereignty. The plebiscites, hastily arranged by pro- Russia insurgents who have seized government buildings over the past month, are denounced both by the central government in Kyiv and the West, and it is unclear whether they will be recognized by Moscow in light of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s call for the vote to be postponed. Issues of legitimacy aside, the vote is sure to add to tensions in an area already gripped by rebellion and sporadic clashes between militants and Ukrainian forces. After Viktor Yanukovych, the Russia- friendly Ukrainian president, was toppled in February following months of protests in the capital, many people in eastern and southern Ukraine strongly resented the authorities who took over. The majority in that sprawling swath of the country speak Russian as their mother tongue and many denounced the new government as nationalists — and even fascists — who would suppress the Russian- speakers.

THE BALLOT ISSUE

The ballot asks if voters approve establishment of sovereign and independent “people’s republics.” However, the ultimate goal is not clear. Organizers in Donetsk say that, in the event of a “yes” vote, they will decide later if they want to be independent, seek to become part of Russia or agree to stay in Ukraine but with signifi cantly greater autonomy.

RUSSIA’S INVOLVEMENT

Kyiv and the West claim Russia is fomenting or even directing unrest in the east, either with the goal of fi nding a pretext for invading and seizing the region, or of destabilizing Ukraine in order to force it to agree to abandon aspirations to join NATO and the European Union. Russia denies it has agents on the ground in the east. Putin’s call on Wednesday for the referendum to be postponed may have been intended to portray Russia as seeking de- escalation of the crisis. .

REFERENDUM PROSPECTS

Recent poll data show a strong majority in the east favour remaining part of Ukraine, but that doesn’t necessarily prefigure a “no” vote on a “people’s republic.” Many who were on the fence may have been swayed by last week’s grisly confrontation in Odesa, where dozens of pro- Russians died when the building where they took shelter was firebombed by government backers. In any case, sovereignty opponents may choose to sit out the vote because of the intimidating atmosphere.

WHAT’S NEXT?

If the vote is “yes” and the insurgents push for incorporation into Russia, Moscow will face a dilemma. U. S. and EU sanctions already appear to be aff ecting the economy. Russia would be leery of inducing more such punishment by annexing the regions. It would also be logistically more challenging: Crimea housed a large Russian military contingent at the Black Sea Fleet base and reinforcements were brought in quickly before Ukraine could respond. But Ukrainian forces are already fi ghting in the east .