Too harsh for Ontarians, Hudak gets the boot
Election: Return of Liberals seems to be less about Wynne and more about Tory leader
SThe reason Wynne bounced back, logically, was less her than it was Hudak.
o, it’s a Wynne win — and a majority at that. Where to begin? We could say that, given the wholly unappetizing selections on the menu, Ontarians opted for the devil they know — the Liberal government of Kathleen Wynne. Or, we could say that NDP Leader Andrea Horwath lacked a credible pretext for precipitating this vote, and has paid the price — or rather, her party has paid the price. Further, we could say that Progressive Conservative Leader Tim Hudak ran an unnecessarily harsh and ideological campaign that pushed many swing voters into other camps, costing his party the ball game, yet again.
Each of these threads will be fleshed out in the days to come. Each is partly true. None is the whole story, or will capture the full range of puzzlement many Ontarians will be feeling now, as they grapple with the reality that, after all the fuss and bother, it’s still the Liberals in charge.
Any way you parse the result, this much is truly staggering: 11 years of Ontario Liberal scandal — broken promises, the gas plants and Ornge, eHealth and OLG, Caledonia and prorogation, industrial wind farms, soaring hydro prices and the Green Energy Act, mounting deficits and debt, the shift from have to have- not status — weren’t enough to propel the Conservatives to power, and the Liberals into the weeds. That’s a negative hat trick for the Tories. This will require some intense soul- searching on their part, and a change of leaders too. More on that later.
For Wynne personally, it’s a significant victory. When she first took over the Liberal leadership at the beginning of 2013, few would have given a plugged nickel for her chances of survival. The monumental mess of the gas- plant scandal and ensuing prorogation seemed too big for any party, particularly a late- cycle party, to weather.
Yet survive she did, long enough to establish herself as at least middling credible and trustworthy, in the minds of many voters. Her performance in the televised debate June 3 was weak. She struggled under the dead weight of the Liberal record. Yet somehow, after suffering an initial dip in postdebate polls, she managed to bounce back.
The reason she bounced back, logically, was less her than it was Hudak, and his plan, and his marketing of his plan. Both Hudak and Horwath appear to have entered this campaign with an almost bug- eyed determination to ignore political reality at all costs. Horwath had to have known her chances of improving her position were slim. Hudak must have realized that a hard right turn and zealous union- bashing would alienate many of the people he needed to persuade. He explained himself repeatedly in interviews, and campaign appearances: He would be honest, clear- eyed, tell hard truths and let the chips fall where they may.
Good. Except that Hudak went further. On May 9, in a campaign stop in Barrie, he promised to lop 100,000 jobs out of the public sector — without firing a single nurse, doctor or police officer — and bring the province’s books to balance within two years. That represented a 15 per cent downsizing of the public sector. At the same time, he pledged to chop corporate taxes down to eight per cent from the current 11.5 per cent, and in so doing create a million jobs within eight years. In the TV debate, he promised dramatically to resign if he failed.
But the million- jobs plan was half- baked. It was based on accounting that considered any one- year term of employment to be a job, thus boosting his number by a factor of eight. Further, the plan conceded that half those jobs would accrue anyway. It was a huge bungle — which Hudak blithely ignored after he was called out for it. As for the job cuts, it turned out Ontarians don’t particularly want that many civil servants fired. By the time Hudak finally got around to telling people 80 per cent of the cuts would be from attrition or retirement, it was too late. The zeal for job cuts and the specious math are what did him in.
The Ontario Tories must now reconcile themselves to the fact that the old balanced pattern of the province’s politics is rocksolid: Ontarians are loath to install a right- leaning government at Queen’s Park when one is in power in Ottawa, and vice versa. For the time being, the Conservatives must live up to their namesake, progressive, or forget winning power. That means they’ll need a new leader. Hudak opted, rather courageously, to go out with his shield, or on it. He’ll go out on it — resigning as leader Thursday night.
What does it mean, in a nutshell? Wynne’s spring budget, which precipitated this contest, is back on the table. And Ontario will continue rolling along, living beyond its means, until it no longer can. Either way, austerity is coming. Ontarians have opted for a gentler hand to wield the blade.