California drought pushes B. C. food prices higher
A new report makes case for strengthening food security
Price increases in B. C. recorded by Statistics Canada between July 2013 and July 2014
Continued drought affecting California’s productive Central Valley could push the prices of some fruits and vegetables in B. C. grocery stores up 34 per cent this year, according to a new study commissioned by Vancity.
B. C. farmers are poorly positioned to pick up the slack should major price shocks and limited supply disrupt our access to many popular fruits and vegetables, according to the author, Brent Mansfield of the University of B. C.’ s faculty of land and food systems.
As farmers here have turned to crops such as blueberries for export markets, the area used for vegetable production in B. C. has fallen by more than 20 per cent and strawberry production by 60 per cent since 1991. Local lettuce production dropped by 52 per cent and broccoli production by 34 per cent between 1996 and 2011.
Most of California is in “extreme” or “exceptional” drought due to a lack of precipitation going back 30 months, leading farmers to reduce the acreage under crops, according to the report.
We are already feeling the effects.
The price of fresh vegetables in B. C. has risen nearly six per cent in the past year, while the price of fresh fruit is up nearly 10 per cent, increases that are four to five times higher than the average since 2002, the report notes. If current price trends continue for five years, the average B. C. family will be spending an extra $ 30 to $ 60 a month on fresh produce.
Economic forecasts by experts at the University of Arizona and the University of Guelph predict the price of California fruits and vegetables could rise another 20 per cent in the coming year, with lettuce ( 34 per cent) and broccoli ( 22 per cent) leading the way.
“As the drought deepens in California and elsewhere, we need to understand what that means for consumers, for governments and for the business of agriculture here in B. C.,” said Mansfield. “The price trend has really jumped in the past year and it’s much higher than we have seen from inflation.”
We import about 67 per cent of the fresh fruits and vegetables we consume from the United States, about half of that from California. While global markets for food will allow us to find these products elsewhere, it may not be at the prices we are used to, because so many other food- producing regions are affected by water shortages, said Mansfield.
“We are going to find ourselves more and more vulnerable if drought continues to be a problem and we let local production slide like this,” he said. “If we rely on others to produce our food, we are exposed to this kind of volatility.”
The arithmetic makes a strong argument for increasing our self- reliance as a way to soften the impact of supply shocks and volatile prices, he said.
“In California, they are seeing significant decreases in supply across all crops and after that we are subject to the laws of supply and demand,” said Mansfield. “They are going to satisfy their primary markets first, so there will be even less available for us and that pushes prices even higher.”
The report urges consumers, institutions and governments to support the local food economy, which has the added benefit of injecting billions of dollars into the local economy and creating tens of thousands of new jobs.
“If prices for food are rising it makes sense for [ British Columbians] to support the local economy where there is a multiplier effect,” said William Azaroff, Vancity’s director of business and community development. “We can spend that money locally and see that benefit our farmers and have some certainty about how our food is grown, or send our money elsewhere and not really know.”
Bringing underutilized agricultural land in B. C. into production — particularly in places such as Langley, where 75 per cent of agricultural land parcels are under four hectares ( 10 acres) — could go a long way toward satisfying local markets. That’s especially so if governments can compel people on small parcels of land in the Agricultural Land Reserve that are not in production to farm the land, or supply it to someone who will.
A case- study by Kent Mullinix at Kwantlen Polytechnic University found that one third of the ALR land in Surrey is not in production, much of it small parcels owned by non- farmers. If that land were in production, it could supply 100 per cent of Surrey’s need for 27 crops and animal products six months of the year.
Vancity has invested $ 32 million in grants, loans and other supports for local and organic food initiatives over the past four years, said Azaroff.