Island battleground could get nasty

Greens target several seats as they bid for official party status

OTTAWA — Vancouver Island could be one of the nastiest and most volatile turf battles in the 2015 federal election, say political insiders and analysts.

And it could also be historic, helping to give the Green party enough MPs to wield significant power if there is a minority Parliament after the October vote, leader Elizabeth May said. “We are going to win multiple seats,” on the island and in the Lower Mainland, she said. “The excitement is palpable.”

May, after unsuccessful bids to win a seat in 2006 in Ontario and 2008 in Nova Scotia, recognized in 2011 what was already obvious to many Canadians — that a Green breakthrough, if it ever happened, would begin on the West Coast.

She parachuted into the Saanich-Gulf Islands riding and won by a hefty margin, more than 7,300 votes — ousting veteran Tory cabinet minister Gary Lunn in the process.

Since then she has enjoyed mostly positive reviews leading a one-MP party, and even doubled her “caucus” in late 2013 when disgruntled northern Ontario MP Bruce Hyer left the New Democrats to become a Green.

The NDP holds three Island seats, the Conservatives two, and the Greens one. In the next election, the region will get a seventh seat to take into account population growth.

The emergence of the Greens as a threat to the New Democrats is based on a combination of factors — grassroots momentum, the Greens’ ability to concentrate resources on a handful of key ridings, and a wedge issue — oilsands pipelines — that plays in favour of May’s party.

That has generated a bitterness that is also apparent in the B.C. political scene, where social media sniping reflects the John Horgan-led provincial NDP’s concern about losing supporters since the B.C. Greens elected their first MLA, Andrew Weaver, in 2013.

In addition to the May and Weaver breakthroughs, the Greens in 2012 came within three percentage points of winning the Victoria byelection.

Another jarring moment for the New Democrats in Victoria was the 2013 municipal elections, as NDP-endorsed two-term mayor Dean Fortin was narrowly defeated by Green-backed Lisa Helps.

Green targets in 2015 include Murray Rankin, an environmental lawyer who won that squeaker in Victoria. Former local CBC host Jo-Ann Roberts is seeking the Victoria Green nomination. But perhaps the candidate most likely to get under the NDP’s skin is Paul Manly, the outspoken son of former New Democrat MP John Manly. He is running for the Greens in Nanaimo-Ladysmith after being denied a chance to run for the NDP because of his criticism of Mulcair’s Middle East policy.

NDP founding leader Tommy Douglas, if he were alive today, would be a Green, Manly told a party gathering this month. The fact that the Greens have no realistic hope of governing is a key advantage, as the party can spend a huge portion of its campaign war chest — estimated at $5 million to $6 million — in a bid to win the dozen seats needed to get official party status.

The three established parties will have more than triple that amount during the campaign, but all three are aiming to form government and must spread their cash and effort across a vast country with 338 ridings — which means significant time spent by leaders east of the Rockies.

“B.C. is where the ‘tree hugger’ vote is and the Green party knows it,” said University of Victoria political scientist Kim Speers.

A second factor in May’s favour is that she is the only non-Conservative leader without a nuanced position on the construction of oilsands pipelines — she’s flat-out opposed to them all.

The NDP, while it opposes outright the Northern Gateway project to Kitimat, is condemning the federal review process for the proposed Kinder Morgan pipeline expansion to Burnaby.

Mulcair has said that, if he were prime minister, he would tell the company to go back to the drawing board after an NDP government had brought in tougher environmental laws and a better federal approval process.

While the NDP has reason to be worried, some view the Green emergence with relish.

The Liberals think Justin Trudeau’s charisma and the Green-NDP spat could help the party take former Liberal seats in Victoria and Esquimalt.

Victoria lawyer Bruce Hallsor, a longtime Tory organizer, said the expected rise of the Liberal and Green vote will cut into the NDP’s strength on the island.

“That helps us.”