Canadian farmers to plant more wheat, less canola this year, report predicts
WINNIPEG — Wheat growers in Canada, the world’s secondlargest exporter, plan to increase seeding by 3.9 per cent, according to a government report. Estimates for soybean and canola seedings unexpectedly fell.
Farmers may sow 24.8 million acres of wheat, up from 23.8 million a year earlier, Statistics Canada said in a report. The average estimate of nine analysts surveyed by Bloomberg was 24.1 million. Soybean planting may decline 3.4 per cent to 5.4 million acres, compared with the 5.8 million analysts forecast.
The outlook comes after wet weather delayed seeding in the Prairies last year.
While analysts expected increased plantings of soybeans that are seen as more resilient in adverse weather, lower costs make wheat attractive amid falling prices for grains and oilseeds, said Ken Ball, a senior commodity futures adviser at PI Financial.
“It’s a little bit cheaper to grow wheat,” Ball said.
“When all prices are on the low side, that does become a factor.”
Statistics Canada surveyed about 11,500 farmers from March 18 to March 31.
The survey tracks planting intentions, and growers may shift acres by the time they actually sow crops, Ball said. The canola numbers “are on the low end of things” given price gains in the crop this year, he said.
Canola plantings may fall 4.5 per cent to 19.4 million acres, less than the 20.4 million analysts forecast. Seeding conditions are seen to be favourable after two years of delayed plantings, according to the report.
Total acres will probably increase this year as farmers work fields that were flooded in 2014, said Jerry Klassen, a manager of Canadian operations and trading at Gap SA Grains & Produits in Winnipeg.
“I think we’re not seeing as many drowned-out areas and even low spots will have a chance to be seeded this year,” Klassen said.
Widespread flooding occurred in parts of Manitoba and Saskatchewan last year following record rainfall during the growing season. Farmers reported that the rains cut yields and led to a late harvest, the nation’s statistics agency said in a December report.
Mild spring temperatures in the Canadian prairies this year are expected to promote “rapid fieldwork and early wheat planting,” Martell Crop Projections said in an April 10 report.
Spring-wheat planting may rise 3.4 per cent to 18 million acres, while durum seeding is forecast to climb 15.8 per cent and winter wheat will fall 25 per cent, the report showed. Barley acreage is forecast to increase 10 per cent.
Planting of dry, field peas may increase 0.9 per cent to 3.8 million acres, while lentil seeding may climb 7.7 per cent.
Canola prices may rally as Canada needs closer to 20 million acres to meet processor and export demand, said Wayne Palmer, senior market analyst at Agri-Trend Marketing in Winnipeg. Growing more wheat amid large existing supplies “is kind of absurd” and the numbers will probably be adjusted when the government releases its report on what farmers actually sowed, he said.
Wheat futures in Chicago dropped 27 per cent in the 12 months through April 22, while canola prices in Winnipeg lost two per cent. The oilseed gained as much as one per cent on Thursday.